Bill Clinton in Newly Released Epstein Files: 2% Market Probability Analysis

With the February 28, 2026 deadline fast approaching, prediction markets are signaling strong doubt that Bill Clinton will be named in the newly released Jeffrey Epstein documents. The Polymarket contract shows just a 2% probability—essentially pricing in near-certainty that the former president won't appear in this particular document batch.

Key Takeaways

2% market probability suggests traders see Clinton's inclusion as highly unlikely by the February 28 deadline

The Epstein files release has generated significant public interest with over $622,854 in trading volume on this market alone

Market resolution depends on official document releases, not speculation or unverified claims

Current State

The question of who will be named in newly released Epstein documents has captivated public attention for years. This specific Polymarket contract resolves based on whether Bill Clinton appears in official court documents or government releases by February 28, 2026—not rumors, social media claims, or unverified reports.

Here's what makes this market interesting: despite Clinton's documented association with Epstein (including flight logs showing travel on Epstein's private jet), the market isn't betting on his inclusion. That disconnect between public perception and market pricing is where the story gets nuanced.

📊 Market Overview

2%

Market Probability

$622K

Trading Volume

4 days

Until Resolution

$142K

Market Liquidity

Key Data

Indicator | Value | Signal
Polymarket Probability | 2% | Strong No
Trading Volume | $622,854 | Moderate interest
Resolution Date | Feb 28, 2026 | 4 days remaining
Liquidity | $142,523 | Healthy market
Market Confidence | High | Low volatility

The trading volume tells us this isn't an obscure market—over $600K has been wagered—but the probability has remained consistently low, suggesting traders have specific information or analysis driving their skepticism.

Probability Analysis

Yes: 2% No: 98%

Source: Polymarket | Volume: $622,854 | Resolves: Feb 28, 2026

Analysis

Why would the market show such low probability despite Clinton's known connections to Epstein? A few factors likely drive this pricing:

1. Specific Document Scope. This market doesn't ask whether Clinton ever appeared in Epstein-related documents—he has. It asks whether he'll be named in newly released files by February 28. That's a much narrower question, and the documents scheduled for release may simply not involve him.

2. Legal Process Timing. Document releases follow court schedules and legal procedures. If no Clinton-related documents are in the pipeline for this specific release window, the probability logically drops to near zero regardless of broader associations.

3. Market Efficiency. Prediction markets aggregate information from participants who may have followed court filings more closely than casual observers. The 2% probability reflects collective judgment that this particular deadline won't produce Clinton mentions.

If you're evaluating this market, the key question isn't about Clinton's Epstein connections broadly—it's whether this specific document batch contains his name. The market clearly thinks not.

FAQ

What documents are covered by this prediction market?

The market resolves based on newly released official court documents or government filings related to Jeffrey Epstein that become public by February 28, 2026. It does not include previously released documents, media reports, or unverified claims.

Has Bill Clinton been named in Epstein documents before?

Yes, Clinton has appeared in previously released Epstein-related documents, including flight logs showing he traveled on Epstein's aircraft. This market specifically concerns new document releases by the February deadline.

How does Polymarket resolve this prediction?

The market resolves based on official document releases. If Clinton's name appears in newly released files by the deadline, "Yes" shares pay out at $1. If not, "No" shares win.

How to Trade This

This prediction trades on Polymarket. Buy "No" shares at approximately 98¢ (98% implied probability) if you agree with the market consensus. Each share pays $1 if correct, nothing if wrong. Sell anytime before resolution.

Risk: Prediction markets involve financial risk. Only trade what you can afford to lose. This is not financial advice.

Source

Polymarket