Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader by February 28? 3% Probability Analysis [Iran Leadership]

Will Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the man who has ruled Iran with an iron fist since 1989 — suddenly vacate the most fortified political seat on the planet within the next week? Prediction markets say there's a 3% chance, which in political terms is roughly the same odds as your cat learning to file your taxes. But let's dig into why even that 3% exists and what it would take.

Key Takeaways

Khamenei has held power for 35 years — longer than most dictators dream of

Prediction markets assign just a 3% probability he leaves by February 28, 2026

No Supreme Leader has ever been removed from office in Iran's 46-year theocratic history

The constitutional mechanism for removal exists on paper but has never been tested in practice

Iran Supreme Leader: Current Status and Political Structure

The Supreme Leader of Iran isn't just a head of state — he's the head of everything. The position comes with lifetime tenure, authority to dismiss the president, command of the armed forces, and final say on national policy. If you're thinking "that sounds like a king with extra steps," you're not far off.

Khamenei, now 86 years old, has occupied this role for 35 years, weathering domestic protests, international sanctions, and more geopolitical crises than most world leaders see in a lifetime. The Assembly of Experts — a body of 88 clerics who theoretically oversee the Supreme Leader — has the constitutional authority to remove him. The key word there is "theoretically." They've never so much as drafted a strongly-worded letter.

Probability of Khamenei Leaving by Feb 28

3%

Highly Unlikely Certain

No Supreme Leader has ever been removed in 46 years of the Islamic Republic

Succession: Iran's Most Awkward Conversation

Iran has only had two Supreme Leaders in its entire existence: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (1979-1989) and Khamenei himself. That's a succession rate of once every 46 years — making papal transitions look positively frequent by comparison.

When Khomeini died in 1989, the Assembly of Experts selected Khamenei despite the rather inconvenient fact that he didn't technically meet the constitutional requirement of being a marja (grand ayatollah). They essentially rewrote the rules on the fly, which tells you everything about how flexible the system can be when the establishment wants it to be.

The succession rumor mill keeps churning out names: Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei is often mentioned, though hereditary succession would be ideologically awkward for a republic founded on overthrowing a monarch. Other names like Ebrahim Raisi or Sadeq Larijani represent the conservative old guard — but until Khamenei actually leaves, this remains the world's most high-stakes hypothetical.

Iran's Supreme Leader Timeline

1979

Ayatollah Khomeini

Islamic Revolution establishes Supreme Leader position

1989

Khamenei Takes Power

Selected by Assembly of Experts after Khomeini's death

2026

35 Years and Counting

Khamenei at 86 remains firmly in power with no succession mechanism triggered

Why the 3% Is Probably Generous

Constitutional Fortress

The Iranian constitution provides essentially no mechanism for removing a sitting Supreme Leader other than death or voluntary resignation. Asking whether Khamenei could be forced out is like asking whether a medieval king could be voted off his throne — the system simply wasn't designed for it.

Multi-Layered Power Control

Khamenei doesn't rely on a single institution for his authority. He controls the Revolutionary Guards, the judiciary, and state media simultaneously. Trying to dislodge him would require coordinating a challenge across all three power centers at once — a political operation so complex it makes regime change look straightforward by comparison.

The "External Threat" Shield

International sanctions and diplomatic isolation have historically strengthened the Supreme Leader's domestic position rather than weakened it. Nothing unifies a nation behind its leader quite like foreign adversaries at the gate. Every round of Western sanctions becomes another argument for why Iran needs strong centralized leadership.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

Khamenei has served as Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, after previously serving as president from 1981-1989. He holds lifetime tenure under Iran's theocratic system, making him one of the longest-serving national leaders on the planet.

How is the Supreme Leader of Iran chosen?

The Assembly of Experts — 88 elected clerics — selects the Supreme Leader. They also technically have the authority to remove him, though in 46 years they've shown zero appetite for testing that power.

What happens if Khamenei dies or resigns?

The Assembly of Experts would convene to select a successor. Expect closed-door negotiations among senior clerics, political heavyweights, and military commanders — essentially Iran's version of a conclave, but with more geopolitical consequences.

Khamenei Supreme Leader Prediction: February 2026 Forecast

Direction: No Probability: 3% Horizon: 7 days (February 28, 2026) Answer: Unlikely

A 3% probability over a 7-day window tells you everything: this would require either a sudden health crisis or an unprecedented political upheaval in a system designed specifically to prevent upheaval. No Supreme Leader has ever been removed in 46 years of the Islamic Republic. The constitutional barriers are sky-high, the power structure is self-reinforcing, and the timeline is impossibly short. You'd have better odds predicting a snowstorm in the Sahara.

How to Trade This Prediction

This outcome is actively traded on Polymarket, if you fancy yourself an Iran political analyst.

Trading Options:

If you believe Khamenei WILL remain: Buy "No" shares at 97¢ (potential +3.1% if correct)

If you believe Khamenei WILL leave: Buy "Yes" shares at 3¢ (potential +3,233% if correct — but good luck)

Current Market:

Outcome | Share Price | Implied Probability | Potential Return
Yes | 3¢ | 3% | +3,233%
No | 97¢ | 97% | +3.1%

The market overwhelmingly favors Khamenei staying exactly where he is — which, given the man has survived 35 years of crises, revolutions, and sanctions, seems like a reasonable bet.

Risk Warning: Prediction markets involve financial risk. Only trade what you can afford to lose. Past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.

Sources

Polymarket - Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader Market