Iranian Regime Collapse by March 31: 11% Market Probability as $25M in Bets Track US Military Campaign

Twenty-five million dollars. That's how much prediction market traders have wagered on whether Iran's regime will fall by the end of March — and they're giving it just an 11% probability. The massive betting volume reflects intense global interest in the outcome of Operation Epic Fury, the US military campaign launched in early March 2026.

Key Takeaways

11% market probability of regime collapse by March 31, 2026, backed by $24.8M in trading volume

Operation Epic Fury is the primary catalyst — US military strikes targeting nuclear facilities, missile arsenals, and proxy networks

Regime survival history is the counter-argument: Iran has weathered decades of sanctions, isolation, and external pressure

Key risk: Regime collapse could trigger regional instability affecting oil markets and global security

The low odds might surprise you. After all, the United States military has been systematically targeting Iranian military infrastructure, ballistic missile arsenals, and proxy networks. But prediction markets are betting that nearly half a century of regime survival suggests the Islamic Republic won't crumble in just three weeks.

Current Market State

Prediction market traders aren't gambling on optimism — they're putting real money behind historical precedent. The Iranian regime has survived the Iran-Iraq War, decades of economic sanctions, popular protests, and international isolation. An 11% probability essentially says: "We've seen this movie before, and the regime is still standing."

But here's what makes this moment different: Operation Epic Fury, authorized by President Trump, represents a sustained military campaign specifically designed to "eliminate the imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime, destroy its ballistic missile arsenal, degrade its proxy terror networks, and cripple its naval forces." This isn't sanctions or diplomatic pressure — it's direct military action.

According to White House statements, US forces are executing the operation "with unparalleled precision, overwhelming power, and relentless effectiveness." The campaign has reportedly targeted nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and command-and-control infrastructure.

Key Data

The numbers tell a story of historical resilience meeting unprecedented pressure:

Indicator | Value | Signal
Polymarket Probability | 11% | Market strongly disfavors collapse
Trading Volume | $24,859,225 | Extremely high credibility
Regime Duration | 46+ years | Historical resilience
Military Campaign Duration | ~7 days | Limited timeframe
End Date | March 31, 2026 | 23 days remaining

The trading volume is the most striking number here. A $25 million market doesn't form around uncertain outcomes — it signals that sophisticated traders have done their analysis and reached a consensus.

Odds Movement & Timeline

The market's 11% probability reflects a snapshot as of March 8, 2026. Historical odds movement data was not available for this market, but the low probability suggests traders priced in the regime's survival track record from the start.

Key events that could shift odds:

Early March 2026: Operation Epic Fury launched with US and partner nation strikes

Ongoing: US targeting of Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure

March 31: Market resolution deadline

Analysis

If you're trying to understand why the market is so bearish on regime collapse, consider the timeline. Twenty-three days is an extraordinarily short window for a government that has controlled Iran since 1979 to completely fall — even under sustained military pressure.

The regime has several structural advantages that traders are likely pricing in:

Internal Security Apparatus: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij paramilitary forces have suppressed multiple waves of domestic unrest. This infrastructure remains intact despite military strikes.

Decentralized Command: Unlike a single-point-of-failure government, Iran's theocratic structure has multiple power centers — the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, the IRGC, and various clerical bodies. Removing one doesn't necessarily topple the system.

Historical Precedent: The regime survived the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the 2009 Green Movement protests, the 2019-2020 fuel protests, and decades of maximum-pressure sanctions. Each time, the government adapted rather than collapsed.

The counter-argument is that Operation Epic Fury represents a fundamentally different kind of pressure — direct military strikes rather than economic coercion. If the campaign successfully degrades the IRGC's ability to maintain internal control, the calculus changes.

Settlement Criteria

This market resolves based on whether the Iranian regime falls by March 31, 2026. "Falls" typically means:

The Islamic Republic government no longer controls Tehran

A regime change has occurred (new government structure)

The Supreme Leader's authority is no longer recognized

The market resolves "No" if the current Iranian government structure remains in power through March 31, 2026, even if weakened or partially degraded.

What to Watch

March 15-20: If the regime is still functioning after two weeks of sustained strikes, the probability will likely drop further toward 5%

IRGC Command Structure: Reports of IRGC leadership casualties could shift odds significantly upward

Domestic Unrest: Large-scale protests or uprisings in major cities would be a leading indicator

Tehran Control: Any loss of government control over the capital would dramatically shift the market

FAQ

What is the current probability of Iranian regime collapse?

Polymarket traders currently price in an 11% probability that the Iranian regime will fall by March 31, 2026. This reflects $24.8 million in trading volume and suggests the market strongly disfavors regime collapse within the timeframe.

What is Operation Epic Fury?

Operation Epic Fury is a US military campaign launched in March 2026 targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile arsenals, proxy terror networks, and naval forces. The operation involves precision strikes executed with partner nations.

How would regime collapse affect markets?

Regime collapse in Iran would likely cause significant volatility in oil markets due to supply disruption concerns, impact regional security dynamics, and affect global risk sentiment. The prediction market allows traders to bet directly on this outcome.

Prediction

Direction: Bearish on collapse | Probability: 8% | Horizon: 23 days (March 31, 2026) Answer: No

The market's 11% probability aligns with historical patterns of regime resilience. Twenty-three days is simply too short a window for a 46-year-old government structure to collapse, even under sustained military pressure. The IRGC's internal security apparatus, decentralized power structure, and survival track record suggest the regime will likely remain intact through March 31 — though potentially significantly weakened.

How to Trade This

This prediction trades on Polymarket. Buy "No" shares at approximately 89¢ (11% implied probability of collapse) if you agree the regime will survive. Each share pays $1 if correct, $0 if wrong. Sell anytime before resolution.

Risk Warning: Prediction market odds reflect the collective assessment of market participants and should not be interpreted as definitive forecasts. Markets with lower trading volume may be susceptible to manipulation by well-capitalized participants. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or gambling advice. Only trade what you can afford to lose.