Trump Rescind the DACA Program? 69% Probability Analysis — 2026 Update

DACA — the program that has kept nearly 600,000 Dreamers in a perpetual state of bureaucratic limbo since 2012 — is once again staring down the barrel of executive action. With Polymarket traders pricing rescission at 69%, the question isn't really if the Trump administration wants to end the program. It's whether they've finally figured out how to do it without getting slapped down by the courts again.

DACA Program Status: Current Situation in 2026

Right now, approximately 590,000 undocumented immigrants who arrived as children hold DACA protections — work permits and a temporary shield from deportation, renewed every two years like the world's most stressful subscription service. The program has been limping along under court orders that block new applications while allowing renewals for existing recipients.

The Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement agenda has made no secret of its intentions. This White House has been methodically reversing Obama-era immigration policies, and DACA sits near the top of that list like a highlighter-yellow target.

📊 DACA Rescission: Key Metrics

69%

Rescission Probability

590K

DACA Recipients

90 days

Prediction Horizon

14 years

Congressional Inaction

Key Factors Influencing DACA's Future

Legal Landscape and Court Challenges

DACA has survived more legal challenges than a mob boss with a good lawyer — but each round has left it weaker. The program currently operates under judicial orders that amount to life support: existing recipients can renew, but the door is locked for newcomers. The administration's willingness to test legal boundaries through executive orders suggests they're ready for another courtroom showdown — this time with better homework.

Political Context and Congressional Action

Here's the part that should make Dreamers nervous: Congress has had over a decade to pass permanent protections and has failed every single time. Both parties have used DACA recipients as political chess pieces while the actual humans in the program live two-year renewal cycle to two-year renewal cycle. This legislative vacuum is exactly what makes DACA vulnerable — without a statutory foundation, it's just a policy memo that can be unmade by the same pen that wrote it.

Administrative Priorities

Recent White House communications frame immigration squarely as an economic and national security issue. When the administration talks about prioritizing American workers, DACA is implicitly on the table — 590,000 work-authorized individuals in a political climate where "America First" isn't just a slogan but an operating manual.

⚖️ Case For vs. Case Against Rescission

Case For Rescission (69%)

Clear administrative intent to reverse Obama-era policies

Lessons learned from 2020 Supreme Court loss — better legal strategy

Post-election mandate provides political capital

14 years of Congressional inaction leaves no statutory shield

Case Against Rescission (31%)

Guaranteed legal challenges from blue-state AGs

Court injunctions could freeze implementation for 12-24 months

Political backlash from displacing 590K established residents

Potential Congressional compromise under pressure

Historical Context: DACA Under Trump

If you're experiencing deja vu, you should be. During his first term, Trump tried to rescind DACA in 2017. The Supreme Court blocked it in 2020 — not because the policy had to stay, but because the administration botched the paperwork. The Court essentially said, "You can end this, but you have to show your work." Think of it as getting an exam returned marked "incomplete" rather than "wrong." The administration's sustained focus on immigration enforcement strongly suggests they've been studying for the retake.

DACA Rescission Probability

69%

Yes (Rescind)

31%

No (Maintain)

Source: Polymarket prediction market data

DACA Rescission Prediction: 90-Day Forecast

Direction: Bearish (Program termination likely) Probability: 69% Horizon: 90 days (until May 22, 2026) Answer: Yes

Prediction Methodology

This probability represents Polymarket market sentiment from prediction markets where participants trade shares based on their assessment of outcomes. The 69% "Yes" price reflects collective wisdom regarding:

Administrative Intent: Clear pattern of immigration policy rollback — this isn't speculation, it's the stated agenda.

Legal Strategy: Lessons learned from the 2020 Supreme Court failure mean the next attempt will come with better legal architecture.

Political Capital: A post-election mandate gives the administration runway to pursue controversial policies without immediate electoral consequences.

Congressional Inaction: After 14 years of failed legislative fixes, expecting Congress to suddenly find a compromise is the political equivalent of expecting your fantasy football league to agree on rule changes.

The market suggests that while legal challenges are guaranteed (Democratic attorneys general are probably pre-drafting their complaints right now), the administration will pursue a more legally defensible rescission process this time.

Frequently Asked Questions

What happens if Trump rescinds DACA?

If DACA is rescinded, current recipients would lose work authorization and protection from deportation. But don't expect ICE agents at doorsteps the next morning — the administration would likely provide a wind-down period, and litigation would immediately freeze implementation. The administration has shown willingness to use executive authority on immigration, but courts have shown equal willingness to pump the brakes.

Can Congress save DACA?

Theoretically, yes. Practically? Congress has had since 2012 to pass legislation creating permanent protections for Dreamers. They've failed under unified Democratic control, unified Republican control, and split government. The administration's preference for executive action over legislative patience suggests even the White House doesn't expect Congressional rescue.

What is the timeline for DACA rescission?

If the administration acts, expect an executive order within 90 days (by May 2026), followed immediately by lawsuits from blue states and immigration advocacy groups. The actual unwinding would take 12-24 months due to court injunctions — meaning this becomes a legal marathon, not a sprint.

How to Trade This Prediction

Want to put your analysis to work? This prediction can be traded on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market where you can buy shares based on your conviction.

Trading Options:

If you agree DACA will be rescinded: Buy "Yes" shares at 69c (potential +45% if correct)

If you disagree: Buy "No" shares at 31c (potential +223% if correct)

Current Market:

"Yes, Trump will rescind DACA" trading at 69c (implies 69% probability)

"No, Trump will not rescind DACA" trading at 31c (implies 31% probability)

How It Works:

Each share pays $1 if the outcome occurs, $0 if it doesn't

Buy shares below $1 to profit from correct predictions

Sell anytime before resolution to lock in gains or cut losses

Risk Warning: Prediction markets involve financial risk. Only trade what you can afford to lose. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

Market Data Sources: Polymarket prediction market prices reflect collective wisdom from thousands of traders analyzing the same factors: administrative intent, legal constraints, and political context.

Source: Polymarket — Will Trump Rescind the DACA Program?