Khamenei's Iran Leadership: 3% Probability of Ouster by February 28, 2026 [Geopolitical Analysis]

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled Iran as Supreme Leader since 1989—through wars, sanctions, protests, and assassinations. Yet Polymarket traders are now betting $11 million on whether his 36-year reign ends by February 28, 2026. The market gives this outcome just 3% probability. Here's why the odds heavily favor continuity, and what could change them.

Key Takeaways

3% probability of Khamenei being ousted by February 28, 2026—markets strongly favor regime stability

$11 million in trading volume signals genuine market interest despite low probability outcome

US military strikes on Iran are the primary catalyst that could destabilize the leadership transition

Historical resilience: Khamenei has survived 36 years despite multiple assassination attempts and internal challenges

Current Situation

The timing is no coincidence. With the February 28 deadline, this market intersects directly with heightened US-Iran tensions following American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The question isn't abstract—it's tied to whether military escalation could trigger regime collapse.

Khamenei, now 86 years old, has faced health speculation for years. But Iran's theocratic system has a clear succession mechanism through the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 clerics constitutionally empowered to select the next Supreme Leader. Any transition would likely be managed from within, not imposed from outside.

The market's 3% probability reflects a simple calculus: even under extreme external pressure, Iran's regime has shown remarkable durability. The 1979 Islamic Revolution itself required a massive, months-long uprising. US military action—while destabilizing—doesn't automatically translate to regime change.

Ouster Probability

3%

Markets strongly favor regime stability

Volume: $11.08M Horizon: 5 days

Key Data

The numbers tell a story of institutional resilience:

Factor | Data Point | Implication
Market Probability | 3% | Traders heavily discount ouster scenario
Trading Volume | $11.08 million | Significant capital deployed despite low odds
Khamenei's Tenure | 36 years (1989-2026) | Longest-serving Iranian leader since Revolution
Age | 86 years old | Health concerns are ongoing but not acute
Succession Body | 88-member Assembly of Experts | Institutional mechanism exists
US Strike Probability | 50% (separate market) | External catalyst present but uncertain

Analysis

Here's where it gets interesting. The market isn't asking about natural death or planned succession—it's specifically about "ouster," implying removal from power before February 28. That's a 5-day window from the current date.

For context on how unlikely this is: Khamenei survived the 2009 Green Movement protests (millions in the streets), years of crushing economic sanctions, multiple rounds of Israeli assassination attempts on Iranian nuclear scientists, and the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. Through all of it, his grip on power never seriously wavered.

The only scenario where "ouster" becomes plausible is a complete collapse of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) loyalty—a $65 billion paramilitary force with deep economic interests in the status quo. US strikes might damage infrastructure, but they historically strengthen nationalist sentiment around existing regimes.

If you're evaluating this market, the 3% probability is essentially pricing in a black swan event: a military coup, sudden health crisis combined with succession chaos, or mass IRGC defection. None of these has historical precedent in Iran's post-1979 history.

Ouster Catalysts (Low Probability)

US military strikes on nuclear sites

IRGC loyalty collapse (unprecedented)

Sudden health crisis + succession chaos

Mass popular uprising (no signs)

Stability Factors (High Probability)

36 years of regime durability

IRGC $65B economic stake in status quo

Assembly of Experts succession mechanism

External pressure historically rallies support

FAQ

What happens if Khamenei dies naturally before February 28?

This would NOT count as "ouster"—death and ouster are distinct outcomes. The market specifically references removal from power, not natural succession. His death would trigger the constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts.

Could US military strikes force Khamenei from power?

Historically, external military pressure tends to strengthen authoritarian regimes by rallying nationalist sentiment. The IRGC remains loyal to the Supreme Leader, and there's no evidence of organized internal opposition capable of capitalizing on external strikes to seize power.

Who would replace Khamenei if he were ousted?

Iran's constitution designates the Assembly of Experts as the body to select the Supreme Leader. The current frontrunner is reportedly Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's son, though this succession would face internal criticism over nepotism concerns.

Prediction

Direction: Bearish (on ouster) | Probability: 97% No | Horizon: 5 days Answer: No

The market's 3% probability aligns with historical precedent. Regime change in theocratic Iran requires internal collapse, not external pressure. With the IRGC loyal, succession mechanisms in place, and only 5 days remaining, the probability of ouster approaches zero. The real question isn't whether Khamenei stays—it's whether he survives long enough to manage his own succession.

How to Trade This

This prediction trades on Polymarket. Buy "No" shares at 97¢ (3% implied probability of ouster) if you agree with the stability analysis. Each share pays $1.00 if Khamenei remains Supreme Leader through February 28, 2026.

Current Market Prices:

Outcome | Share Price | Implied Odds | Potential Return
Yes (Ouster) | 3¢ | 3% | +3,233%
No (Stays) | 97¢ | 97% | +3%

Risk Warning: Prediction markets involve financial risk. Only trade what you can afford to lose. Past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.

Sources

Polymarket - Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28