Justice for Victims of Sanctuary Cities Act (S.3782): 32% Senate Passage Probability Analysis

A new Senate bill is reigniting one of America's most contentious immigration debates. The Justice for Victims of Sanctuary Cities and Fallen Law Enforcement Act of 2026 (S.3782) would allow victims of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants to sue jurisdictions that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities. With sanctuary city policies already under fire from the Trump administration, this legislation could fundamentally reshape the legal landscape — if it can survive the Senate.

Key Takeaways

S.3782 shows 32% probability of Senate passage based on historical patterns and current partisan dynamics

Bill targets sanctuary jurisdictions by creating civil liability for crimes committed by undocumented immigrants

Primary obstacle: Senate requires 60 votes for cloture, and immigration bills historically face partisan gridlock

Current State

The bill, introduced in February 2026, represents the latest Republican effort to curb sanctuary city policies that limit local cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. The legislation comes amid heightened immigration enforcement under the Trump administration, with Border Czar Tom Homan conducting targeted operations to remove "violent criminals" from sanctuary jurisdictions.

Here's where it gets interesting: The bill doesn't just target the policies — it creates a direct path for victims to seek damages. If an undocumented immigrant commits a crime in a sanctuary jurisdiction, victims could sue that jurisdiction for failing to cooperate with federal authorities who might have deported the perpetrator earlier.

Senate Passage Probability

0% 50% threshold 100%

Key Data

The numbers tell a story the headlines miss:

Factor | Status | Impact on Passage
Senate Composition | 53-47 Republican majority | Positive but short of 60-vote threshold
Historical Immigration Bill Passage | ~15% of introduced bills pass | Low baseline probability
Sanctuary City Bills (2017-2025) | 0 passed Senate | Precedent suggests difficulty
Bipartisan Co-sponsors | TBD | Critical for cloture
Committee Assignment | Judiciary Committee | Chaired by Republican, but immigration is divisive

The most striking number: zero sanctuary city bills have passed the Senate in the past eight years, despite multiple attempts during both Republican and Democratic majorities.

Arguments FOR Passage

53-47 GOP Senate majority

Victim & law enforcement framing

Trump admin enforcement momentum

Possible attachment to budget bill

Arguments AGAINST Passage

60-vote cloture threshold

0 sanctuary bills passed (2017-2025)

Needs 7 Democratic crossovers

Immigration = deep partisan divide

Analysis

If you're tracking this bill's chances, here's what matters: The 60-vote cloture threshold is the real battleground. Even with a 53-47 Republican majority, the bill needs at least seven Democratic votes to overcome a filibuster — a tall order on immigration.

But there's a wrinkle. The bill's framing around fallen law enforcement could attract moderate Democrats from border states or districts with strong law enforcement constituencies. Bills that emphasize victim compensation and officer safety have historically garnered more bipartisan support than pure enforcement measures.

The counter-argument? Minnesota's experience shows exactly why this debate remains so polarized. Critics argue sanctuary policies protect communities by encouraging undocumented immigrants to report crimes without fear of deportation. Supporters of S.3782 counter that these policies shield dangerous individuals from removal.

The wildcard: If the bill gets bundled into a larger immigration or budget package, its passage probability increases significantly. Standalone immigration bills rarely survive; attached measures have a fighting chance.

FAQ

What does S.3782 actually do?

The bill creates a federal cause of action allowing victims of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants to sue sanctuary jurisdictions for damages. It also includes provisions related to fallen law enforcement officers and federal grants to jurisdictions that fully cooperate with ICE.

Which states have sanctuary policies that would be affected?

As of 2026, over 200 jurisdictions have some form of sanctuary policy, including California, Illinois, New York, and major cities like Chicago, San Francisco, and New York City. The bill would expose these jurisdictions to civil liability.

What's the bill's timeline in the Senate?

After introduction, the bill must pass the Judiciary Committee before reaching the floor. Even with favorable committee action, scheduling a floor vote depends on Senate leadership priorities and whether supporters can secure the 60 votes needed for cloture.