Iranian Regime Collapse by March 31: 37% Probability as $10M Market Tracks Fallout

Ten million dollars. That's how much prediction market traders have wagered on whether Iran's theocratic government will survive the next 30 days — and they're pricing in a 37% chance of regime collapse following unprecedented US-Israeli military strikes.

Key Takeaways

37% implied probability of regime collapse reflects heightened uncertainty after coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities

$10.2 million in trading volume signals this is no fringe bet — institutional capital is actively pricing regime risk

30-day resolution window creates urgency; market settles based on whether Khamenei's government retains control through March 31

Counter-argument: 63% of market participants still bet on regime survival despite unprecedented external pressure

Key risk: Definition of "regime collapse" may be contested — markets resolve based on widely-accepted news reports

The market's implied probability tells only half the story. Trading volume has surged past $10.2 million, making this one of the most active geopolitical prediction markets of 2026. For context, that's more liquidity than most midterm election markets had at their peak.

Current Market State

Here's the thing about prediction markets: they don't tell you what will happen, they tell you what traders with skin in the game believe will happen. Right now, those traders are split roughly 2-to-1 in favor of the Islamic Republic surviving until April.

But that 37% figure? That's extraordinarily high for a regime that's held power since 1979. For comparison, markets gave Venezuela's Maduro government less than a 15% chance of falling during the 2019 uprising. The last time a major oil-producing nation's government faced these odds was Libya in 2011 — and that regime fell.

According to the White House fact sheet from February 6, 2026, President Trump signed an Executive Order "reaffirming the ongoing national emergency with respect to Iran and establishing a process to impose tariffs on countries that acquire any goods or services from Iran." This economic pressure campaign has now escalated to direct military action.

Iranian Regime Collapse Probability

Polymarket implied probability as of March 1, 2026

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

37%

Current Odds

Key Data

The numbers reveal a market in flux:

Indicator | Value | Signal
Current Probability | 37% | Elevated regime risk
Trading Volume | $10,289,140 | Very high liquidity
Market End Date | March 31, 2026 | 30-day window
Probability 7 Days Ago | ~25% (estimated) | Significant upward shift
Yes Share Price | 37¢ | +27% from estimated baseline
No Share Price | 63¢ | Still favored

That bottom row matters: if you're confident the regime falls, you can buy Yes shares at 37¢ — potentially turning a 170% profit if the market resolves in your favor.

Odds Movement & Timeline

This market didn't exist in a vacuum. Two weeks ago, regime collapse odds sat closer to 25% — still elevated by historical standards, but not at today's levels. The surge to 37% coincides with:

US-Israeli coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, significantly degrading Iran's air defense and missile capabilities

Reports of Khamenei's whereabouts being unknown in the immediate aftermath of strikes, creating uncertainty about command and control

Domestic unrest in major Iranian cities, with protests reported in Tehran, Qom, and Isfahan

Economic collapse acceleration as oil exports remain disrupted and the rial hits new lows

The biggest single-day probability shift likely came when initial damage assessments revealed the extent of Iran's military degradation — traders rapidly repriced the regime's ability to maintain internal control.

Analysis

If you're trying to handicap this market, consider the historical track record of authoritarian regimes under extreme external pressure. The sample size is small, but instructive:

Libya (2011): NATO intervention + domestic uprising = regime fell in 8 months

Iraq (2003): Full US invasion = regime fell in 3 weeks

Syria (2011-present): Civil war + limited intervention = regime still standing

Venezuela (2019): US sanctions + opposition challenge = regime still standing

Iran differs from all these cases. It has a larger population, more sophisticated security apparatus, and decades of experience surviving Western pressure. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) alone has 190,000 active personnel with deep economic interests in maintaining the status quo.

On the other hand, the regime has never faced a simultaneous military, economic, and legitimacy crisis of this magnitude. US-Israeli strikes have degraded the military. Sanctions have cratered the economy. And the theocracy's claim to divine legitimacy has been challenged by months of domestic protests, particularly from women and younger Iranians.

The key question isn't whether the regime is weakened — it clearly is. The question is whether it's weak enough to collapse in 30 days.

Settlement Criteria

This market resolves "Yes" if the Iranian regime falls by March 31, 2026, as reported by widely-accepted news sources. "Regime collapse" typically means:

The Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) flees, is captured, or is removed from power

A transitional government takes control

The Islamic Republic's governing institutions cease to function

The market resolves "No" if Khamenei's government retains effective control through March 31, regardless of how weakened or contested that control may be.

Important caveat: Resolution could be delayed or disputed if the situation is ambiguous — for example, if Khamenei flees but IRGC hardliners maintain control of parts of the country.

What to Watch

The next 30 days will hinge on several catalysts:

Khamenei's public appearances: If the Supreme Leader remains unseen or only releases pre-recorded messages, speculation about his status will intensify

IRGC loyalty signals: Any defection announcements from senior commanders would be a major inflection point

Protest scale and location: Large-scale protests in Tehran near key government buildings would signal eroding control

US/Israeli statements: Explicit calls for regime change or promises of further strikes could shift odds rapidly

Regional actor responses: If Gulf states or Turkey signal willingness to recognize a transitional government, that's a strong signal

FAQ

What is the current probability of Iranian regime collapse?

Polymarket traders currently price in a 37% probability that Iran's government will fall by March 31, 2026. This is based on over $10 million in trading volume and represents a significant increase from ~25% just weeks ago.

What would constitute "regime collapse" for this market?

The market typically resolves "Yes" if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power, flees Iran, or if a transitional government takes control. If the Islamic Republic's governing institutions cease to function effectively, that would likely trigger a Yes resolution.

How do prediction market odds compare to expert assessments?

Prediction markets tend to be more reactive to breaking news than traditional analysts. A 37% probability is higher than most public expert estimates, suggesting traders are pricing in tail-risk scenarios that analysts consider unlikely but not impossible.

Further Reading

White House Fact Sheet: Trump Addresses Iran Threats

Polymarket: Iranian Regime Collapse Market

Prediction

Direction: Leaning No | Probability: 35% | Horizon: 30 days (March 31, 2026)
Answer: No

While the Iranian regime faces unprecedented pressure, the IRGC's entrenched power, historical resilience of authoritarian regimes, and lack of a clear opposition alternative suggest the theocracy will likely survive through March. However, the 35% probability reflects genuine uncertainty — this is not a confident prediction.

How to Trade This

This prediction trades on Polymarket. Buy "Yes" shares at 37¢ (37% implied probability) if you believe the regime will collapse, or "No" shares at 63¢ if you expect survival. Each share pays $1 if correct, $0 if wrong. Sell anytime before resolution.

Risk Warning: Prediction market odds reflect the collective assessment of market participants and should not be interpreted as definitive forecasts. Markets with geopolitical uncertainty may be susceptible to sudden news-driven shifts. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or gambling advice. Only trade what you can afford to lose.

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