Tottenham vs Crystal Palace EPL March 2026: 41% Win Probability Analysis

Four straight losses. Relegation fears mounting. A manager publicly calling out his own players. That's the state of Tottenham Hotspur heading into their March 5 clash with Crystal Palace — and yet, $387,000 in Polymarket volume says Spurs still have a 41% chance of winning.

Key Takeaways

41% win probability for Tottenham despite 4 consecutive Premier League defeats and growing relegation concerns

Interim manager Igor Tudor has publicly criticized both his players and opponents, signaling dressing room turmoil

Crystal Palace lost 2-1 to Man United but showed fight, with manager Oliver Glasner calling out penalty decisions

If you're eyeing this London derby, here's what the numbers actually reveal about a Tottenham side in freefall and a Crystal Palace team that's quietly grinding out results.

Current Market State

Tottenham's season has gone from disappointing to concerning. After a 2-1 loss at Fulham consigned them to a fourth consecutive Premier League defeat, Spurs fans are watching the relegation zone with growing anxiety. The market currently prices in a 41% probability of a Tottenham win — but that number reflects name recognition more than current form.

Here's the thing: Crystal Palace may have lost to Manchester United, but they didn't roll over. Manager Oliver Glasner branded the penalty decision an "Old Trafford bonus" — suggesting his side is playing with fight even when results don't go their way.

Indicator | Value | Signal
Tottenham Win Probability | 41% | Market favors Spurs despite form
Trading Volume | $387,084 | Moderate market confidence
Tottenham Form (Last 4) | 0W-0D-4L | Crisis mode
Crystal Palace Form (Last 1) | 0W-0D-1L | Competitive in defeat

The numbers tell a story the headlines miss: the market is still pricing Tottenham as if they're the "big six" club they used to be, not the relegation-threatened side they've become.

Odds Movement & Timeline

Current odds data reflects a snapshot as of March 5, 2026. The 41% probability suggests early market sentiment, but this number could shift dramatically based on:

Team news (injuries, suspensions)

Starting lineup announcements (expected 1 hour before kickoff)

Any additional comments from Igor Tudor's press conferences

The biggest risk for Tottenham backers isn't Crystal Palace — it's their own manager. Igor Tudor's public criticism of his players and accusations that Fulham "cheated" suggest a dressing room that may already be fractured.

Analysis

Tottenham's problems run deeper than results on the pitch. Four straight losses is one thing — managers get sacked for less. But when your interim boss is publicly slamming the squad and accusing opponents of gamesmanship, you're looking at a club in full crisis mode. The 41% market probability feels optimistic for a side that can't seem to buy a result.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, has shown resilience under Glasner. Yes, they lost to Manchester United — but that was at Old Trafford, where Palace's manager felt hard done by refereeing decisions. At Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, against a depleted-confidence Spurs side, Palace will fancy their chances.

If you're considering a bet here, the value might be on Crystal Palace or the draw — not Tottenham. The market's 41% Spurs win probability appears generous given the current state of both clubs.

Settlement Criteria

This market resolves "Yes" if Tottenham Hotspur defeats Crystal Palace in their Premier League match on March 5, 2026, as officially recorded by the Premier League. The market resolves "No" if the match ends in a draw or if Crystal Palace wins. Any postponed or abandoned match would likely result in market resolution according to Polymarket's rules.

What to Watch

Team News (1 hour before kickoff): Any late injuries or tactical changes could shift odds significantly

Tottenham's Starting XI: If key players are benched or injured, expect the 41% probability to drop

Early Match Tempo: If Tottenham starts sluggishly, in-play odds could move fast against them

FAQ

What is Tottenham's current form?

Tottenham has lost four consecutive Premier League matches, with growing relegation concerns. Their most recent defeat was a 2-1 loss at Fulham.

Who is Tottenham's manager?

Igor Tudor is currently the interim head coach of Tottenham. He has publicly criticized his players and accused opponents of "cheating" following recent defeats.

How does Polymarket settle this market?

The market resolves "Yes" if Tottenham wins, "No" if Crystal Palace wins or the match ends in a draw. The official Premier League result determines the outcome.

Sources

Polymarket Market