Nuggets vs Warriors Feb 22 2026: 45% Win Probability for Denver [Injury Analysis]

Golden State is heading into Saturday's game looking like a three-legged chair — missing Curry, Porzingis, AND Draymond Green. And yet, somehow, the Warriors are still 45% favorites. If you're considering a Nuggets bet, the numbers might be more interesting than the oddsmakers want you to think.

Key Takeaways

Warriors favored at 55% despite losing their entire defensive spine and best scorer

Denver's 45% line looks like a gift wrap on an underdog moneyline

Golden State is testing whether championship DNA beats actual championship players

A fresh Spencer Jones contract gives the Nuggets one more card to play

The Polymarket market has attracted $5.9 million in trading volume — more than some NBA players make in a year — reflecting serious money flowing into this Western Conference clash.

Current State

Here's the thing about the Warriors right now: they're trying to win a game without the three players who define their identity. Stephen Curry is nursing persistent knee issues despite a clean MRI. Kristaps Porzingis is out with illness — and given that his debut produced just 12 points in 17 minutes off the bench, Golden State wasn't exactly getting prime Porzingis anyway. Draymond Green rounds out the injury report with back soreness.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets quietly converted two-way player Spencer Jones to a standard contract — not a blockbuster move, but it signals a team building depth while their opponent is losing it.

Win Probability Breakdown

Warriors

55%

Home court advantage

Nuggets

45%

Injury advantage

Key Data

The matchup breaks down like a lopsided trade offer:

Factor | Warriors | Nuggets | What It Means
Win Probability | 55% | 45% | Closer than you'd expect
Trading Volume | $5.9M | - | Smart money is paying attention
Steph Curry | OUT (knee) | - | No plan B for Golden State's offense
Porzingis | OUT (illness) | - | 12 pts in 17 min was the ceiling
Draymond Green | OUT (back) | - | Defense just lost its quarterback
Roster Move | - | Jones signed | Denver getting deeper, not thinner

That bottom row is the one that tells the real story — one team is adding pieces while the other is subtracting them.

Analysis

So why are the Warriors still favored? Two words: home court. Chase Center gives Golden State a built-in edge, and championship pedigree counts for something even when the roster is decimated. But here's where it gets interesting — losing Curry doesn't just remove points from the scoreboard. It removes gravity. Every defensive scheme Golden State's opponents run starts with "where is Steph?" Take him away, and the entire offensive ecosystem collapses.

Warriors Injury Impact

3

Starters Out

~60%

Scoring Missing

~80%

Defensive Leadership Gone

If you're looking at value, the 45% line on Denver is essentially the market saying "we think the Warriors can win without their three best players." That's a bold bet on brand over substance. The Nuggets have a healthier, deeper roster, and the 55-45 split screams uncertainty — which is exactly where smart money finds opportunities.

FAQ

What time is the Nuggets vs Warriors game on February 22, 2026?

Tip-off is at 5:30 PM Pacific (8:30 PM Eastern) at Chase Center in San Francisco. If you're watching for value, keep an eye on the opening minutes — how Golden State handles the Curry-less offense early will tell you everything.

Are Stephen Curry and Draymond Green playing against the Nuggets?

Neither is suiting up. Curry's knee, Green's back, and Porzingis's illness mean Golden State is missing roughly 60% of its scoring and 80% of its defensive leadership. That's not a setback — that's a different team.

Who is favored to win between the Nuggets and Warriors?

The Warriors at 55%, but that number should make you pause. It's essentially a coin flip with a slight tilt toward home court. Denver at 45% offers +122% return if you think injuries matter more than addresses.

How to Trade This Prediction

This game outcome is actively traded on Polymarket. Back your analysis with real stakes.

Trading Options:

If you believe the Warriors will win: Buy "Warriors" shares at 55¢ (potential +82% if correct)

If you believe the Nuggets will win: Buy "Nuggets" shares at 45¢ (potential +122% if correct)

Current Market Prices:

Outcome | Share Price | Implied Odds | Potential Return
Warriors | 55¢ | 55% | +82%
Nuggets | 45¢ | 45% | +122%

Shares pay $1 if your selected team wins, $0 otherwise. Sell anytime before tipoff. Risk Warning: Only trade what you can afford to lose.

Sources

Polymarket - DEN vs GSW

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