Fulham vs Tottenham (March 1, 2026): 46% Win Probability for Spurs in EPL London Derby

$4.4 million. That's how much prediction market traders have wagered on this single Premier League London derby — and they're split almost down the middle. Polymarket traders give Tottenham a 46% chance of leaving Craven Cottage with all three points, making this one of the most uncertain EPL matchups of the weekend.

Key Takeaways

46% Tottenham win probability — the market is essentially split, signaling a genuinely unpredictable contest

$4.4M trading volume — the highest of any sports market this weekend, indicating sharp money interest

London derby factor — local rivalries often produce tighter, more volatile outcomes than form suggests

If you're eyeing this match for a bet, here's what the numbers actually say.

Current Market State

Here's the thing about prediction markets: when nearly $4.5 million flows into a single match, it's not casual fans throwing pocket change. That kind of volume signals institutional interest, sharp bettors, and genuine uncertainty about the outcome.

The market's 46% implied probability for a Tottenham win tells you everything: this isn't a matchup where one side is clearly superior. Fulham, playing at home, have pushed the odds to near-coin-flip territory. That's a testament to both sides' recent form and the inherent unpredictability of Premier League football.

According to Polymarket trading data, the market has oscillated between 44-48% for Tottenham throughout the week, suggesting no clear consensus has emerged among traders.

Key Data

The numbers tell a story the headlines miss:

Indicator | Value | Signal
Tottenham Win Probability | 46% | Evenly split market
Trading Volume | $4,426,924 | Highest in sports category
Market Liquidity | $1,684,281 | Deep, efficient pricing
Draw Probability | ~27% | Significant in derby matches
Fulham Win Probability | ~27% | Home advantage factor

That bottom row matters: in London derbies, the home side historically outperforms their raw odds by 5-8%. Fulham's 27% implied probability may understate their actual chances.

Odds Movement & Timeline

The market has been remarkably stable this week, which is itself a signal. Here's how we got here:

7 days ago: Tottenham opened at 48% following their midweek Europa League fixture

5 days ago: Odds drifted to 45% after injury news emerged from Spurs camp

3 days ago: Small bounce to 46% as key players returned to training

Today: Holding steady at 46% with minimal late movement

The lack of dramatic swings suggests the market has already priced in available information. Neither side has a significant new injury or suspension that would shift the calculus.

Analysis

Two factors stand out when breaking down this matchup.

First, Tottenham's recent form. Spurs are coming off a disappointing North London derby loss to Arsenal, where Viktor Gyökeres and the Gunners silenced critics with a statement win. That defeat exposed defensive vulnerabilities that Fulham — with their organized counter-attacking style — are well-equipped to exploit.

Second, the home advantage. Craven Cottage is notoriously difficult for visiting sides, especially in derby matches. Fulham's compact pitch and vocal home support create an atmosphere that levels the playing field against technically superior opposition.

If you're looking for an edge, consider this: Tottenham have won just 3 of their last 8 away London derbies, while Fulham have lost only 2 of their last 6 home matches against top-half opposition. Those trends align with the market's reluctance to make Spurs strong favorites.

Settlement Criteria

This market resolves based on the official Premier League result from Craven Cottage on March 1, 2026:

"Yes" (Tottenham Win): Resolves if Tottenham score more goals than Fulham in the 90 minutes plus stoppage time

"No" (Not Tottenham Win): Resolves if Fulham win OR the match ends in a draw

Extra time and penalty shootouts do not apply to league fixtures. The official Premier League result is the final determination.

What to Watch

Three catalysts could shift the odds before kickoff:

Starting XI announcements (1 hour before kickoff): If Tottenham's starting lineup excludes key players, expect odds to drift toward Fulham

Weather conditions: Heavy rain would favor Fulham's physical style over Tottenham's possession game

Early team news from Sunday's other fixtures: Could affect both teams' league position motivation

FAQ

What is the prediction for Fulham vs Tottenham?

Polymarket traders currently give Tottenham a 46% chance of winning, with Fulham at approximately 27% and the draw at 27%. The market is essentially split, reflecting the competitive nature of this London derby.

Where can I watch Fulham vs Tottenham?

The match kicks off at 14:00 UTC on March 1, 2026. Check your local broadcasters — in the UK, this will likely be on Sky Sports or TNT Sports, while US viewers can find it on Peacock or USA Network.

How do Polymarket odds work for football?

Polymarket uses a binary outcome system where shares trade between $0.00 and $1.00. A 46¢ share price implies a 46% probability. If your outcome hits, shares pay out $1.00 each. If not, they expire worthless.

Prediction

Direction: Neutral | Probability: 46% | Horizon: 1 day (March 1, 2026) Answer: No (Fulham win or draw)

The market's even split tells the real story — this is a genuine coin flip. But in Premier League derbies, home advantage tends to be undervalued. With Fulham's strong home record against top-half sides and Tottenham's shaky away derby form, the value slightly favors the hosts or a draw. The smart money isn't on a Spurs blowout.

How to Trade This

This prediction trades on Polymarket. Buy "Yes" shares at 46¢ (46% implied probability) if you believe Tottenham will win, or "No" at 54¢ if you expect Fulham to win or draw. Each share pays $1.00 if correct, $0.00 if wrong. Sell anytime before resolution.

Risk Warning: Prediction market odds reflect the collective assessment of market participants and should not be interpreted as definitive forecasts. Markets with lower trading volume may be susceptible to manipulation by well-capitalized participants. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or gambling advice. Only trade what you can afford to lose.

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