The prospect of a U.S. recession in 2025 remains a highly debated topic among economists, with predictions offering a complex and often contradictory outlook. While some institutions signal a notable risk, others maintain a more optimistic view of continued, albeit slower, economic expansion.
Recession probability forecasts for 2025 vary significantly. J.P. Morgan Research has adjusted its probability for a U.S. recession in 2025 down to 40% from an earlier 60%. Similarly, the prediction market Kalshi estimates a 40% chance, reflecting a recent increase in concern. In contrast, analysis using a method developed by Jonathan Wright for the Federal Reserve Board suggests the probability of a recession between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below 20%, marking its lowest point since December 2022. Goldman Sachs Research maintains a notably lower 12-month recession probability of 15% as of December 2024. Other forecasts fall in between, with Bankrate's Q3 Economic Indicator Survey (October 2025) placing the chance of a recession by September 2026 at 39%, and Oxford Economics (June 2025) pegging the next-year recession chances at 35%.
| Institution | Probability (2025/2026) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan Research | 40% | Reduced from 60% |
| Kalshi | 40% | Recent increase |
| Goldman Sachs Research | 15% (12-month) | As of Dec 2024 |
| Oxford Economics | 35% (next year) | As of June 2025 |
| Bankrate (Q3 2025 Survey) | 39% (by Sept 2026) | Slight increase from prior quarter |
| Federal Reserve (Wright method) | <20% (Dec 2025-Dec 2026) | Lowest since Dec 2022 |
Key economic indicators present a mixed bag. Real GDP grew 2.83% year-over-year in Q2 2025, a deceleration from the stronger growth rates seen in 2024. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's model even suggested negative economic growth for Q1 2025. Looking ahead, The Conference Board anticipates U.S. GDP will expand by 1.8% in 2025, further slowing to 1.5% in 2026. J.P. Morgan Research forecasts a more modest 0.25% annualized GDP growth rate for the second half of 2025. Deloitte also expects a moderation in real GDP growth.
The diverse array of forecasts underscores the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic trajectory for 2025. While some indicators point to a slowdown and heightened recession risk, others suggest resilience, making it a pivotal year for economic observers and policymakers alike.