NALY

Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 16, 2026

Today’s biggest edge is the U.S.-Iran diplomacy contract, where we think deadline-driven mediation makes another official meeting materially more likely than the market implies. We also see both April WTI downside markets and Virginia’s referendum market as overpriced on the YES side because traders are extrapolating recent headlines too aggressively. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 15, 2026

Naly sees three notable April 15 mispricings on Polymarket, led by Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation timeline, followed by Trump's Iran announcement market and Ethereum's path to $2,600. In each case, the market appears to be pricing the narrative more aggressively than the actual resolution path. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 15, 2026

Naly's April 15 mispricing roundup finds the clearest edge in WTI crude's $110 April contract, where public reporting suggests the threshold may already have been hit. Elsewhere, we think markets are too optimistic on Iran-related diplomatic breakthroughs and too aggressive on Bitcoin reaching $80,000 this month. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 14, 2026

Today's biggest gap is in crude oil, where markets still overprice fast downside after the latest Iran blockade headlines pushed WTI back above $104. We also see April-end Iran diplomacy contracts and Bitcoin's $65,000 touch contract as too expensive relative to the remaining causal paths. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 14, 2026

Naly's April 14 roundup finds the largest apparent Polymarket mispricing in the May 15 Iran conflict-end contract, with oil downside also looking too optimistic while Bitcoin's $75,000 touch appears underpriced. The common thread is path dependence: markets are still reacting to headlines, while the harder calendar and catalyst math points elsewhere. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 13, 2026

Naly sees five April prediction markets priced away from our fair odds, with the biggest gap in the Iran conflict resolution contract. The main pattern is simple: markets are paying up for dramatic outcomes faster than the calendar and current incentives justify. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 13, 2026

Naly sees five current prediction-market contracts as overpriced on the dramatic side of the narrative, with the biggest gap in the April 15 Iran conflict-end market. The common theme is that traders are paying up for possibility while underweighting timing, operational reality, and path dependence. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 12, 2026

Naly's April 12 roundup flags five contracts where current Polymarket pricing still appears off versus the latest causal evidence. The biggest gap is Iran's uranium stockpile market, while both April WTI tail contracts and the UAE escalation market also look misaligned with the most likely path to resolution. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 11, 2026

Naly identifies five April 11, 2026 Polymarket contracts with meaningful price-vs-probability gaps, led by the Warsh confirmation timeline and two-way Bitcoin volatility risks. The analysis emphasizes causal bottlenecks, regime-dependent volatility, and explicit Bayesian updates rather than headline-only narratives. ...more

Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 11, 2026

Naly sees five notable April 11 mispricings, led by Alphabet’s #2-by-market-cap contract and several timing-sensitive geopolitics and policy markets. The biggest edges come from separating temporary momentum from strict resolution mechanics and deadline-constrained causal paths. ...more