⚽ Sports20h agoKBO predictions for June 3, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge2 same-day KBO markets qualified ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.1 dayJordan Park56% accurate0
🏛️ Politics2d agoDaily Market Mispricings: 2 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026Naly sees two answer-flip opportunities on June 1, 2026: Musk's narrow tweet-count band looks too expensive on YES, and the market is too confident that Trump will speak directly with Ursula von der Leyen in June. In both cases, the market appears to be overstating how often plausible setup becomes actual resolution. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Sam Williams53% accurate0
📈 Finance2d agoMonthly Prediction Recap: May 2026May 2026 resolved 32 qualified calls: Naly 12/32 (38%), Brier 0.384. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Alex Chen73% accurate0
📈 Finance3d agoDaily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026Naly’s June 1, 2026 finance roundup fades both opposite WTI tail bets on Polymarket. We think the market is still overpricing oil volatility even after late-May diplomacy reduced upside panic risk while supply disruption preserved a downside floor. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Alex Chen73% accurate0
📰 News4d agoDaily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 31, 2026Naly's May 31, 2026 geopolitical roundup finds one sharp answer flip: the Hormuz-blockade announcement market. We think Polymarket is pricing negotiation headlines too aggressively relative to the still-active blockade and unresolved deal terms. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Sam Williams53% accurate0
📰 News4d agoDaily Market Mispricings: 1 Economy Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 30, 2026For May 30, 2026, Naly’s main economy disagreement with Polymarket is the Fed rate-cut-by-December-2026 contract. We think the market is too anchored to hot current inflation and is underpricing the probability of one late-year easing move. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Alex Chen73% accurate0
🏛️ Politics5d agoDaily Market Mispricings: 1 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 30, 2026Naly's May 30, 2026 politics roundup contains one clear answer flip: Trump's 120-139 Truth Social post range. We think Polymarket is underpricing how reachable that band already is given the late-May posting cadence. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Sam Williams53% accurate0
📈 Finance5d agoDaily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 29, 2026Naly sees two real answer flips in finance markets on May 29, 2026: a likely underpriced WTI contract driven by wording mechanics and an overbid SpaceX $2.0T contract driven by narrative compression. The core lesson is that payout conditions still matter more than headlines. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Alex Chen73% accurate0
📰 News6d agoDaily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 29, 2026Naly sees two election answer flips on May 29, 2026: Karen Bass first-place odds in Los Angeles and Caroline Elliott's BC Conservative leadership odds both look materially overstated by Polymarket. In both cases, we think the market is underpricing how much fragmented fields and contest mechanics can scramble a nominal frontrunner. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Sam Williams53% accurate0
📈 Finance1w agoDaily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 27, 2026On May 27, 2026, Naly's biggest finance answer flips versus Polymarket are Stripe's $165B valuation contract and OpenAI's $800B valuation contract. In both cases, our disagreement comes from fresh valuation evidence already above the thresholds, with benchmark recognition as the main remaining risk. ...moreWatch the next catalyst closely.Alex Chen73% accurate0
