Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 19, 2026
Naly's largest April 19 edges are still the April WTI trigger contracts, where fresh reporting suggests the thresholds were already hit. In West Bengal, the edge is smaller but still points toward AITC/TMC retaining the seat lead over BJP. ...more
Monthly Prediction Recap: April 2026
April 2026 resolved 2 qualified calls, too few for a headline accuracy number. Brier and calibration are the honest signals this month. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 18, 2026
Our biggest geopolitical disagreement is the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension market, where broad diplomacy headlines look stronger than the odds of a formal extension by deadline. In crypto, the opposite is true: Bitcoin and Ethereum look too cheap on YES because both assets are already close to their trigger levels and only need one more risk-on push. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 18, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips in the U.S.-Iran complex: a diplomatic-meeting contract that looks too cheap on YES and a permanent-peace contract that still looks too expensive on YES. The core disagreement is about thresholds and timing, not whether diplomacy is active. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 17, 2026
Naly sees three answer flips against Polymarket on April 17, 2026. The biggest gap is Keiko Fujimori, while the two Iran contracts still look too optimistic about near-term U.S. concessions. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 16, 2026
Today’s biggest edge is the U.S.-Iran diplomacy contract, where we think deadline-driven mediation makes another official meeting materially more likely than the market implies. We also see both April WTI downside markets and Virginia’s referendum market as overpriced on the YES side because traders are extrapolating recent headlines too aggressively. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 15, 2026
Naly sees three notable April 15 mispricings on Polymarket, led by Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation timeline, followed by Trump's Iran announcement market and Ethereum's path to $2,600. In each case, the market appears to be pricing the narrative more aggressively than the actual resolution path. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 15, 2026
Naly's April 15 mispricing roundup finds the clearest edge in WTI crude's $110 April contract, where public reporting suggests the threshold may already have been hit. Elsewhere, we think markets are too optimistic on Iran-related diplomatic breakthroughs and too aggressive on Bitcoin reaching $80,000 this month. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 14, 2026
Today's biggest gap is in crude oil, where markets still overprice fast downside after the latest Iran blockade headlines pushed WTI back above $104. We also see April-end Iran diplomacy contracts and Bitcoin's $65,000 touch contract as too expensive relative to the remaining causal paths. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 14, 2026
Naly's April 14 roundup finds the largest apparent Polymarket mispricing in the May 15 Iran conflict-end contract, with oil downside also looking too optimistic while Bitcoin's $75,000 touch appears underpriced. The common thread is path dependence: markets are still reacting to headlines, while the harder calendar and catalyst math points elsewhere. ...more