| Option | Probability | Potential Return | Max upside | If you agree | No rate cut | no-change consensus100% probability of no rate cut | $272.7M | 0% probabilityKey catalyst: March 7-8 CPI data release could shift expectations if surprisingly low | 11-day prediction horizon | March 19, 2026 | Key risk: Valuation concerns at 45x P/E could limit upside potential | Key threshold: If cut probability rises above 20%, it would signal a meaningful shift in market expectations. | No (no Rate cut) | $0.00 | $1.00 | 100% | 0% shares pays $1.00 if correct, $0% shares become $1.00 - 100% probability | $272,730,578 | 4.25-4.50% | $272 million | $5,000,000 | 11 days (March 19, 2026) | $0.00 | $0% | $0.00 shares.0% probability
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📈 Finance
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the March 2026 FOMC meeting?
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the March 2026 FOMC meeting?
No•95%•11 days
Polymarket
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Predictions are AI-generated for informational purposes only and are not financial, investment, or betting advice. Always do your own research and use independent judgment.
Published 19h ago•
Key Insights
Polymarket traders assign 0% probability to a Fed rate cut in March 2026 with $272.7M in trading volume backing the consensus
The March 19, 2026 FOMC meeting is the decision point with the Fed expected to hold rates at 4.25-4.50%
Strong labor market and sticky inflation give the Fed little incentive to cut rates further
Key catalyst: March 7-8 CPI data release could shift expectations if surprisingly low
11-day prediction horizon captures the final economic readings before the FOMC decision
