What price will Bitcoin hit in January?

Bitcoin's price trajectory in January 2026 has become increasingly uncertain as the cryptocurrency faces significant selling pressure and deteriorating market sentiment. After closing 2025 below key psychological thresholds, Bitcoin enters the new year struggling to maintain momentum amid record outflows from investment products and growing bearish sentiment from major market analysts.

Current Situation

US Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a massive $1.72 billion outflow streak over five consecutive trading days, representing one of the most severe capital exoduses from the cryptocurrency since spot ETFs launched in January 2024. The prolonged selling pressure has coincided with the widely followed Crypto Fear and Greed Index remaining entrenched in "Extreme Fear" territory, signaling deep pessimism among retail and institutional investors alike. Bitcoin's price has stagnated below its critical 50-day and 200-day moving averages, forming a bearish "death cross" pattern that technical analysts interpret as a signal for further downside.

Adding to negative sentiment, Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone recently declared "the Bitcoin trade is over" in his 2026 macro outlook, reversing his previously bullish stance on the cryptocurrency. McGlone's bearish turn reflects broader concerns about Bitcoin's ability to serve as an inflation hedge amid tightening monetary policy and shifting institutional appetites for digital assets.

Key Factors

Several factors are contributing to Bitcoin's price weakness in January 2026. First, the record ETF outflows indicate that institutional investors, who drove Bitcoin's 2024 rally to new all-time highs above $100,000, are now aggressively reducing their exposure. The five-day outflow streak of $1.72 billion far exceeds previous episodes of ETF selling, suggesting a structural shift in institutional demand rather than temporary profit-taking.

Second, the tax policy environment remains unfavorable for Bitcoin adoption. Current US tax policy treats cryptocurrency sales as taxable events, discouraging the use of Bitcoin for payments and transactions. While lawmakers have proposed tax exemptions for small cryptocurrency transactions, no legislative relief has materialized, limiting Bitcoin's utility as a medium of exchange.

Third, technical indicators paint a grim picture. Bitcoin's inability to reclaim its 200-day moving average, combined with the death cross formation and declining trading volumes, suggests that selling pressure remains elevated. The recent transfer of GameStop's entire Bitcoin stash of 4,710 BTC—purchased at an average price of $107,900—to external wallets has raised concerns about potential additional sell-side pressure if the retailer liquidates its position at current prices around $91,000.

Fourth, network activity shows mixed signals. While Bitcoin nodes running the BIP-110 proposal have crossed 2%, indicating community support for combating spam transactions, the technical upgrade debate has done little to reignite investor enthusiasm or address core concerns about scalability and transaction costs.

Finally, macroeconomic headwinds persist. The Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy, combined with concerns about a potential economic slowdown in 2026, has reduced risk appetite across all asset classes. Bitcoin, as a high-beta risk asset, typically underperforms during periods of monetary tightening and economic uncertainty.

Prediction

Direction: Bearish Probability: 68% Horizon: 7 days (until February 1, 2026) Answer: Below current price

Based on the convergence of record ETF outflows, extreme fear sentiment, bearish technical setup, and institutional selling pressure, Bitcoin is likely to close January 2026 below its current price level. The $1.72 billion ETF outflow streak represents a seismic shift in institutional demand that is difficult to reverse in the short term. While brief oversold rallies are possible, the preponderance of evidence suggests that Bitcoin will face continued selling pressure through month-end, potentially testing support levels in the $85,000-$88,000 range before finding a bottom.