What price will XRP hit in January?

XRP is trading at approximately $1.94 as of January 22, 2026, showing a 3% gain amid a broader crypto market rebound. The token has demonstrated remarkable volatility in recent months, with previous surges of 50% in August and September 2024 and approximately 100% in April 2025 under similar funding conditions.

Current Situation

XRP's current price of $1.94 reflects the token's resilience despite recent market headwinds. The cryptocurrency market is rebounding after President Trump signaled a retreat from proposed tariff measures, with Bitcoin climbing 2% to $89,900 and Ethereum gaining 2% to reach $2,995. XRP's 3% rise to $1.94 positions it among the top performers in the current rally.

Recent analysis indicates that XRP is flashing a bearish signal from its cost-basis metric, which previously projected a 68% price drop. This bearish pressure is fueled by a weakening technical structure and spot ETF outflows. However, historical data shows that similar funding conditions in the past preceded significant rebounds.

Technical Analysis

Based on the research data, XRP has demonstrated the following historical performance patterns:

The current market structure shows both bullish and bearish signals. On the bullish side, the latent buy pressure that previously triggered 50-100% gains appears to be building once again. Short positions are at risk of being squeezed, similar to the April 2025 scenario when XRP doubled in price.

However, bearish indicators cannot be ignored. The cost-basis metric has flashed a signal that previously preceded a 68% price drop. Spot ETF outflows continue to pressure the token, and the technical structure shows signs of weakening.

Key Factors

Several critical factors will influence XRP's price trajectory through the remainder of January:

Historical Pattern Repetition: The funding conditions currently present in the XRP market closely resemble those that preceded the 50% surges in August and September 2024 and the 100% rally in April 2025. This suggests that another significant move could be imminent.

Short Squeeze Potential: Analysts indicate that shorts are in danger due to latent buy pressure building in the market. If a short squeeze materializes similar to April 2025, XRP could see explosive upside momentum.

Market-Wide Recovery: The broader cryptocurrency market is rebounding following positive macroeconomic signals. President Trump's pivot on EU tariffs has injected risk appetite back into the market, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other majors showing gains. This favorable environment could support further XRP upside.

Technical Resistance: Despite bullish signals, XRP faces technical resistance from its weakening structure and the bearish cost-basis metric. The previous 68% drop triggered by this metric suggests that downside risk remains significant if support levels fail to hold.

CEO Optimism: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse remains bullish on the cryptocurrency market, forecasting new all-time highs in 2026. This leadership confidence could influence market sentiment and drive positive momentum for XRP specifically.

Prediction

Direction: Bullish Probability: 65% Horizon: 9 days (January 31, 2026) Answer: $2.15-$2.50

Based on historical patterns showing 50-100% gains under similar funding conditions, combined with the current short squeeze setup and favorable macro environment, XRP has a 65% probability of reaching $2.15-$2.50 by the end of January 2026. This represents a 10-28% upside from the current $1.94 level.

The prediction balances the strong bullish historical precedent against the concerning bearish technical signals. If history repeats with the April 2025 pattern, XRP could approach $3.88 (a 100% gain). However, the more conservative target range accounts for the technical headwinds and the previous 68% drop warning from the cost-basis metric.