Will Bitcoin Be Above $98,000 on February 1?

Bitcoin faces an unprecedented challenge on February 1, 2026, with Polymarket traders giving only a 28% probability that the cryptocurrency will exceed $98,000 by the end of the day. This skepticism comes as Bitcoin recently plunged below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, losing over 30% of its value in a dramatic selloff that wiped approximately $111 billion from the cryptocurrency market capitalization.

Current Situation

Bitcoin currently trades at approximately $78,655 as of February 1, 2026, representing a catastrophic decline from its January 14 peak of $97,700. The cryptocurrency dropped 6-7% in a single day on January 31 alone, marking one of the most significant price corrections in early 2026. Social media sentiment has reached its most negative level of the year, reflecting widespread panic among retail investors who entered the market during the December 2025 rally above $100,000.

The January 31 crash pushed Bitcoin decisively below the critical $84,200 support level that had held since October 2025, triggering a cascade of liquidations across major cryptocurrency exchanges. More than half of all Bitcoin investors now hold positions underwater, with cost bases above $88,000, creating substantial overhanging supply that could cap any recovery attempts.

Technical Analysis

Key Factors

The primary obstacle to Bitcoin reaching $98,000 by the end of February 1 is the sheer magnitude of the required price increase within less than 24 hours. From its current level near $78,655, Bitcoin would need to rally approximately 24.6% in a single trading session, a feat that has occurred only three times in Bitcoin's entire 15-year history. Each of those previous 20%+ single-day gains occurred during extreme market conditions such as the March 2020 pandemic crash recovery and the 2017 bull mania phase.

Technical indicators show that Bitcoin has already entered capitulation territory. The 30% decline in derivatives open interest from October highs suggests that the deleveraging process has purged most excess leverage from the system, which historically has marked market bottoms. However, this cleansing process typically requires weeks of consolidation before sustainable rallies can commence. The January 31 crash specifically took out stop-loss orders below $84,000, leaving the market dominated by panic sellers rather than strategic buyers.

Market structure analysis reveals that Bitcoin must reclaim multiple resistance levels to reach $98,000. The $84,200 level that broke on January 31 now acts as formidable overhead resistance, having previously provided support since October 2025. Above this, the $88,000-$90,000 zone contains the highest concentration of underwater investor cost bases, creating a massive supply overhang that would likely trigger substantial selling pressure into any rally attempt. The $98,000 target itself represents a level that rejected Bitcoin multiple times during January 2026, making it a psychologically important resistance point.

Fundamentally, the $754 million in ETF inflows recorded on January 14 when Bitcoin briefly cleared $95,000 has proven to be temporary institutional interest rather than sustained accumulation. These inflows were the highest since October 2025 but failed to prevent the subsequent collapse, suggesting that smart money was actually distributing into that ETF strength rather than establishing long positions. The Powell-DOJ dispute narrative that briefly fueled safe-haven bidding in mid-January has also faded as the cryptocurrency market has increasingly correlated with traditional risk assets rather than behaving as an independent hedge.