Will Bitcoin Close Above $105,000 on January 26, 2026?

Bitcoin faces a critical test on January 26, 2026, as markets weigh whether the cryptocurrency can close above the $105,000 threshold amid ongoing trade tensions and shifting investor sentiment. The question looms large after BTC experienced significant volatility, including a sharp $4,000 drop in a two-hour market sell-off, while futures open interest has shown signs of recovery.

Current Situation

Bitcoin's price action has been turbulent in January 2026. The cryptocurrency recently fell 3.6% as gold futures hit record highs, following the European Union's threat to retaliate against Trump's tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland. This geopolitical tension triggered $865 million in liquidations across crypto markets, highlighting Bitcoin's continued sensitivity to macroeconomic developments.

The network's fundamentals show mixed signals. Bitcoin's hashrate has slipped below 1 zetahash per second for the first time in four months, despite recent improvements in miner profitability. This decline comes as AI computing competes for electrical grid capacity, potentially constraining Bitcoin's mining infrastructure growth.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

Despite recent volatility, futures open interest has rebounded 13% in January after sharp Q4 deleveraging, suggesting a cautious return of risk appetite among traders. Analysts note that while the rebound remains modest, it indicates that sophisticated market participants are positioning for potential upside.

Notable accumulation patterns have emerged. Bitcoin 'OG whales' sold $286 million of BTC in January, but the slowdown in this distribution combined with accelerating bullish momentum has kept the odds of reaching $100,000 before month-end high. Some analysts, including Jan3 founder Samson Mow, have characterized 2025 as a 'bear market' year despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in October, anticipating a major bull run ahead.

Technical Factors and Risks

Bitcoin currently trades at levels that, according to some analysts, risk the first post-halving year red candle. While a retest of $93,500 could still occur by the yearly close, failure to regain momentum would threaten the four-year cycle theory that has historically governed Bitcoin's market patterns.

The cryptocurrency faces competition from traditional safe-haven assets. Gold has repeatedly hit all-time highs as Bitcoin lost ground in the 'debasement trade', with BTC price action slumping to two-year lows relative to gold. This shift suggests investors are favoring traditional stores of value over cryptocurrency amid uncertainty.

Prediction

Direction: Bearish Probability: 60% Horizon: 1 day (January 26, 2026) Answer: No

Based on current market dynamics, Bitcoin is unlikely to close above $105,000 on January 26, 2026. The confluence of negative factors—including declining hashrate, ongoing trade war tensions, $865 million in recent liquidations, and Bitcoin's underperformance versus gold—creates significant headwinds. While futures positioning shows some resilience, the $105,000 level would require a substantial rally from current prices that appears improbable within the single-day timeframe. Historical patterns and current technical conditions suggest Bitcoin faces more resistance than support at this critical juncture.