Binance founder Changpeng Zhao predicts that Bitcoin could enter a supercycle in 2026, potentially breaking the cryptocurrency's traditional four-year halving cycle that has governed price movements since its inception. The forecast comes as Bitcoin trades below $90,000, following a recent pullback from October highs.
Current Situation
Bitcoin is currently facing headwinds after spot ETFs experienced $1.62 billion in outflows over four consecutive days. Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone has taken a bearish stance on Bitcoin for 2026, suggesting the trade may be over. However, CZ's projection offers a contrarian view, arguing that structural changes in the market could invalidate historical patterns.
What Is a Supercycle?
A supercycle would represent a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's price dynamics, breaking the four-year halving cycle that has driven bull markets since 2012. The traditional cycle sees Bitcoin peak approximately 18 months after each halving event, which occurs every four years and cuts new Bitcoin supply in half.
If CZ's prediction materializes, 2026 could see sustained upward momentum driven by institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and broader macroeconomic factors rather than supply reduction alone.
Key Factors Supporting the Supercycle Thesis
Institutional Adoption Accelerating
Major financial institutions continue expanding crypto offerings despite recent market weakness. UBS is planning to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to select private banking clients in Switzerland, following similar moves by other wealth managers. PwC has declared that institutional crypto adoption has crossed a point of no return as regulatory frameworks shift from draft rules to active supervision.
Regulatory Momentum
The regulatory landscape is evolving rapidly, with U.S. states introducing Bitcoin-friendly legislation. Oklahoma has introduced a bill allowing state employees and vendors to be paid in Bitcoin, while Kansas has proposed a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reaffirmed the Trump administration's push for U.S. crypto leadership.
Structural Market Changes
The approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 fundamentally altered market structure, providing traditional investors with regulated access. While recent ETF flows have been negative, the long-term impact of institutional capital cannot be ignored. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has discussed blockchain tokenization at scale, signaling continued institutional interest.
Arguments Against the Supercycle
Despite CZ's optimism, several factors challenge the supercycle thesis:
- Historical Precedent: Bitcoin has followed the four-year cycle consistently for over a decade, with each halving triggering a new bull market phase
- Current Market Weakness: Long-term holders are ramping up sales, with exchange deposits from whales accelerating
- Macro Headwinds: Rising yields and changing monetary policy could suppress risk asset performance
- Bloomberg Bearishness: Senior strategists are questioning whether the Bitcoin trade has run its course
Historical Context
Bitcoin's four-year cycles have been remarkably consistent:
| Cycle Period | Halving Date | Peak Date | Price Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-2013 | Nov 2012 | Nov 2013 | ~10,000% |
| 2016-2017 | July 2016 | Dec 2017 | ~2,800% |
| 2020-2021 | May 2020 | Nov 2021 | ~700% |
| 2024-2025 | April 2024 | TBD | TBD |
The 2024 halving occurred in April, suggesting that if historical patterns hold, the next peak would arrive in late 2025 or early 2026. A supercycle would disrupt this pattern, potentially extending the bull market beyond typical timeframe.
Prediction
Direction: Neutral
Probability: 45%
Horizon: 12 months (by January 2027)
Answer: Unlikely
While CZ's supercycle thesis is compelling given institutional adoption and regulatory progress, the weight of historical precedent argues against breaking the four-year cycle this early. The current market weakness, ETF outflows, and long-term holder distribution suggest Bitcoin remains cyclical rather than entering a sustained supercycle. The most likely outcome is that Bitcoin follows the traditional halving cycle pattern with a peak in late 2025 or early 2026, followed by a bear market in 2027.
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