Polymarket is pricing this at 100%. Not 95%, not 99% -- a flat one hundred percent. When a prediction market assigns absolute certainty to any outcome, it is worth asking: what does the evidence actually show? In this case, the data overwhelmingly supports that assessment. Israeli airstrikes on Gaza have continued on a near-daily basis despite ceasefire agreements, with the most recent documented strikes occurring on February 15, 2026.
- Polymarket shows 100% probability of another Israeli strike on Gaza before February 28, backed by $2.45M in trading volume
- Strikes occurred as recently as February 15, 2026, with at least 9 Palestinians killed in new attacks according to live reporting
- No functional enforcement mechanism exists for the October ceasefire, and both sides continue to accuse each other of violations
Daily Airstrikes Continue Despite Ceasefire
The October 2025 ceasefire agreement -- part of a broader US plan to wind down hostilities -- exists on paper. On the ground, the picture looks nothing like peace. Al Jazeera's live reporting from February 15, 2026 documented at least 9 Palestinians killed in new attacks across Gaza since dawn. Times of Israel separately reported 8 people killed in overnight IDF airstrikes during February 14-15.
The humanitarian toll tells the broader story. UNRWA's Situation Report #208 documents approximately 71,824-72,000+ Palestinians killed and 171,000 wounded since October 2023. Those numbers are not historical -- they are still climbing.
Why the Ceasefire Is Not Holding
A ceasefire without enforcement is just a press release. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has publicly urged the removal of "Israeli obstacles" to the ceasefire, a diplomatic way of saying the agreement is not being honored. The BBC's ongoing coverage continues to document daily violations from both sides.
The humanitarian infrastructure is collapsing in parallel. On February 14, 2026, gunmen forced Doctors Without Borders (MSF) to halt operations at Nasser Hospital. Israel has announced plans to ban MSF from Gaza entirely over their refusal to provide certain cooperation. When the medical organizations are being pushed out, the ceasefire is not functioning in any meaningful sense.
The Pattern: 16 Months of Continuous Operations
Since October 2023, the conflict has followed a grim but consistent pattern:
| Indicator | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Daily airstrikes | Ongoing | No reduction |
| Ceasefire violations | Both sides accused | Escalating rhetoric |
| International peace efforts | Unsuccessful | Stalled |
| US military posture | Second carrier deployed | Increased presence |
| Medical infrastructure | Severely damaged | Deteriorating |
| Mass burials | Continuing | Unidentified victims rising |
That middle column is the one that matters most. Not a single indicator is trending toward de-escalation. The US has sent a second carrier group to the region -- a move that signals contingency planning, not confidence in peace.
Prediction Market Data
Polymarket's market has attracted $2.45 million in trading volume with $901,040 in liquidity. At 100% implied probability, the market has effectively declared this outcome resolved before the deadline arrives. Given that strikes occurred just days ago and the pattern shows no interruption, the market's confidence is well-founded.
If you are looking for a contrarian case -- some scenario where zero strikes occur over the next 13 days -- you would need an immediate, enforced, and verified ceasefire with international monitoring. Nothing in the current diplomatic landscape suggests that is remotely possible within this timeframe.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there a ceasefire in Gaza?
Technically, yes -- Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in October 2025 under a US-brokered plan. Practically, no. Both sides continue military operations, daily strikes are documented by multiple international news organizations, and neither party has demonstrated sustained compliance. The ceasefire exists as an aspiration, not a reality.
How many people have been killed in Gaza?
UNRWA and Gaza's Ministry of Health report approximately 71,824-72,000+ Palestinians killed and 171,000 wounded since October 2023. These figures are updated regularly as new casualties are documented.
What is the humanitarian situation in Gaza?
Severe and worsening. Medical infrastructure is heavily damaged, international aid organizations face operational shutdowns -- MSF was forced to stop work at Nasser Hospital in February 2026 -- and mass burials for unidentified victims continue due to the collapse of genetic testing capabilities.
Israel Strike Gaza Prediction: February 28, 2026 Forecast
Direction: Certain | Probability: 100% | Horizon: 13 days (February 28, 2026) Answer: Yes
The evidence here is unambiguous. Strikes occurred on February 15, the ceasefire has no enforcement mechanism, diplomatic efforts have stalled, and 16 months of continuous military operations show no trajectory toward a pause. Polymarket's 100% assessment reflects the simplest form of prediction: when something has happened every single day for over a year, it will happen again tomorrow.
How to Trade This Prediction
This prediction trades on Polymarket. At 100% implied probability, "Yes" shares trade at approximately 100 cents and "No" shares near 0 cents. There is effectively no profit opportunity remaining in this market -- the outcome has already been priced in. Each share pays $1 if correct, $0 if wrong. Risk: Only trade what you can afford to lose.