MicroStrategy -- now rebranded as "Strategy" -- just did something it swore it would never do: admit that selling Bitcoin is on the table. In December 2025, CEO Phong Le publicly reversed the company's legendary "never sell" policy, outlining specific conditions under which the firm would liquidate portions of its 673,783 BTC treasury (worth over $60 billion). For a company that built its entire identity on diamond-handing Bitcoin, this is the equivalent of a vegan restaurant adding steak to the menu.
- CEO Phong Le reversed Strategy's "never sell" Bitcoin policy in December 2025, naming two specific sale triggers for the first time
- Bitcoin would need to crash to $8,000 (a 90% decline) or MSTR stock would need to fall below 1x net asset value to force a sale
- Despite the policy shift, Strategy continues buying -- 1,286 BTC in January 2026 alone -- and maintains a 2065 holding commitment
Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings: Current Position
The numbers are staggering:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Bitcoin Holdings | 673,783 BTC |
| USD Reserves Established | $2.25 billion |
| 2025 Capital Raised | $25.3 billion |
| Recent Purchase (Jan 2026) | 1,286 BTC for $116M |
| Recent Purchase (Dec 2025) | 10,645 BTC for $980.3M |
Strategy raised $25.3 billion in equity during 2025 -- making it the largest equity issuer among all U.S. public companies. That is more than most companies are worth, and every dollar went toward buying more Bitcoin. If that does not tell you about their conviction level, the balance sheet speaks louder than any press release.
CEO Phong Le's Bitcoin Sale Conditions
So what changed? Le, who succeeded Michael Saylor as CEO, drew two very specific lines in the sand.
Condition 1: Stock Price Below Net Asset Value (mNAV)
Le stated Strategy would sell Bitcoin as a "last resort" if its stock falls below 1x its net asset value. In his own words:
"We can sell Bitcoin and we would sell Bitcoin if we needed to to fund our dividend payments below 1 times mNAV."
Translation: if MSTR's stock price drops so far that the company is worth less than its Bitcoin on paper, they would sell BTC to keep the lights on and pay shareholders. Think of it as the corporate equivalent of breaking open your retirement savings -- you would only do it if the alternative was worse.
Condition 2: Bitcoin Price Collapse to $8,000
Here is the number that matters: Le revealed Bitcoin would need to plummet to approximately $8,000 per coin -- a 90% nosedive from current levels -- before forced selling becomes realistic. The company absorbed a $17.4 billion Q4 2025 loss without flinching because $8,000 is not a scenario anyone is seriously modeling right now. For perspective, Bitcoin has not traded below $15,000 since November 2022.
Long-Term Commitment Through 2065
Despite cracking open the door to potential sales, Strategy has not abandoned the war room. The company still plans to hold Bitcoin on its balance sheet through 2065 -- a 40-year horizon that Saylor originally established. That is not a typo. They are planning to hold this position for four more decades, through whatever recessions, regulations, and technological disruptions the world throws at them.
The dual messaging is deliberate: "We are not selling unless the world is ending, and even then, we plan to hold until 2065." It is pragmatic flexibility wrapped in maximalist conviction.
Market Context and Stock Performance
The policy reversal did not happen in a vacuum. Strategy is facing real headwinds:
- MSTR stock down 4% year-to-date in 2026, underperforming the S&P 500 (up 1.7%)
- Growing investor concerns about what critics call a "fragile and high-risk Bitcoin treasury strategy"
- Questions about whether a $60 billion Bitcoin bet by a single company constitutes prudent corporate governance
But Le is not backing down on the bull case. He suggested Bitcoin could reach $1 million within seven years -- a projection that would make Strategy's current holdings worth roughly $674 billion. That is either visionary confidence or spectacular delusion, and the market has not decided which.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did MicroStrategy change its "never sell" Bitcoin policy?
Yes, and the timing matters. On December 1, 2025, CEO Phong Le publicly reversed the company's "never sell" stance for the first time. He established two specific conditions under which sales would be considered -- stock price below NAV and Bitcoin at $8,000.
What would force Strategy to sell its Bitcoin?
Two triggers: (1) MSTR stock falling below 1x its net asset value, which would mean the market values the company at less than its Bitcoin is worth, or (2) Bitcoin crashing to approximately $8,000, representing a 90% decline from current levels. Both scenarios are extreme outliers.
How much Bitcoin does Strategy currently hold?
As of January 2026, Strategy holds approximately 673,783 BTC -- the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally. At current prices, that position is worth over $60 billion.
Will Strategy sell Bitcoin in 2025?
Based on CEO statements and the extreme nature of both sale triggers, a 2025 sale is highly unlikely. The company continued purchasing Bitcoin as recently as January 2026, spending $116 million on 1,286 additional BTC.
Strategy Bitcoin Sale Prediction: 2025 Forecast
Direction: Bearish (probability of sale occurring) | Probability: 15% | Horizon: December 31, 2025 Answer: No
The 15% probability reflects four weighted factors:
Condition Thresholds Are Extreme (weight: 40%): Both sale triggers represent tail-risk scenarios. Bitcoin at $8,000 would be a 90%+ crash, and MSTR below 1x NAV would require a severe market dislocation. Neither is in anyone's base case.
CEO's Long-Term Commitment (weight: 30%): Holding through 2065 is not a sound bite -- it is embedded in corporate strategy. Sales would be an absolute last resort, not a pivot.
Market Conditions Provide Buffer (weight: 20%): Bitcoin at ~$90,000 is more than 10x above the $8,000 trigger. MSTR would need to crater from its current level to breach the NAV threshold. The safety margin is enormous.
Actions Speak Louder Than Policy Changes (weight: 10%): Strategy bought 1,286 BTC in January 2026 and 10,645 BTC in December 2025. Companies preparing to sell do not keep buying.
The policy reversal removed the absolute guarantee, but the actual sale conditions are so extreme that a 2025 sale would require a financial earthquake that nobody credible is forecasting.
How to Trade This Prediction
Want to put your analysis to work? This prediction can be traded on Polymarket, where real money backs real opinions.
Trading Options:
- If you agree Strategy will NOT sell: Buy "No" shares at current market prices
- If you think a sale is coming: Buy "Yes" shares for potentially outsized returns
Current Market Data:
| Outcome | Share Price | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No (holds BTC) | 50 cents | 50% |
| Yes (sells BTC) | 50 cents | 50% |
Each share pays $1 if the outcome occurs, $0 if it does not. You can buy in for as little as a few dollars and sell anytime before resolution to lock in gains or cut losses.
Risk Warning: Prediction markets involve financial risk. Only trade what you can afford to lose. Past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future results.
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