Olympique de Marseille host Liverpool FC at the Stade Velodrome on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, in a crucial UEFA Champions League league phase match. With just three points separating these teams in the standings, this fixture carries significant implications for both clubs' knockout stage aspirations.
Current Standings
Liverpool sit 11th in the Champions League league phase with 12 points from six matches (4W-0D-2L), while Marseille occupy 16th position with 9 points (3W-0D-3L). Liverpool need a result to secure a top-eight automatic qualification spot, while Marseille must win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
| Team | Position | Points | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 11th | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
| Marseille | 16th | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
Recent Form Analysis
Marseille (Last 10 Games)
Marseille enter this match in strong domestic form, having won back-to-back matches including a dominant 5-2 victory over Angers. Roberto De Zerbi's side recorded ten shots on target and enjoyed 66% possession in that performance.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Record | 6W-1D-3L |
| Goals Scored (avg) | 2.1 per match |
| Goals Conceded (avg) | 1.2 per match |
| Possession (avg) | 59.3% |
| Corners (avg) | 5.7 per match |
Liverpool (Last 10 Games)
Liverpool have struggled for consistency under Arne Slot, drawing each of their last four Premier League matches. Their 1-1 draw with Burnley marked the first time they failed to beat any newly promoted team at Anfield since 1981.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Record | 4W-6D-0L |
| Goals Scored (avg) | 1.4 per match |
| Goals Conceded (avg) | 0.9 per match |
| Possession (avg) | 60.5% |
| Corners (avg) | 5.3 per match |
Head-to-Head History
This marks the first meeting between these clubs since 2008. Liverpool have won their last three encounters with Marseille, with the French side's last victory at the Stade Velodrome coming in 2004.
| Period | Liverpool Wins | Draws | Marseille Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-Time | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 3 Meetings | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Key Players
Marseille
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been exceptional in Europe this season with 3 goals and 4 assists. Only Kylian Mbappe (9) has more Champions League goal involvements than the Gabonese striker (7).
Mason Greenwood leads the Ligue 1 scoring charts with 12 goals in 17 appearances, providing a consistent domestic threat.
Liverpool
Mohamed Salah returned to training on Tuesday after the Africa Cup of Nations. The 33-year-old is two goals away from reaching 50 Champions League goals, which would make him the 11th player in competition history to reach that milestone.
Florian Wirtz has found form for Liverpool, with six of his nine goal involvements coming since December 20 (4 goals, 2 assists).
Statistical Comparison
| Category | Marseille | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| UCL Points | 9 | 12 |
| UCL Goals For | 8 | 9 |
| UCL Goals Against | 7 | 6 |
| Home UCL Record | 2W-0D-1L | - |
| Away UCL Record | - | 1W-0D-2L |
| xG Per Game (League) | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xGA Per Game (League) | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Betting Market Analysis
Bookmakers favor Liverpool at odds of 1.92-1.94 (implied probability ~52%). However, Marseille's home advantage and recent scoring form present a viable upset scenario.
| Outcome | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 52% |
| Draw | 26% |
| Marseille Win | 22% |
Prediction
Direction: Bearish (Marseille unlikely to win)
Probability: 26%
Horizon: 1 day (January 22, 2026)
Answer: No
While Marseille have shown improved form in Ligue 1 with back-to-back wins and 14 goals, Liverpool's defensive solidity (0.9 goals conceded per game) and superior head-to-head record make a Marseille victory unlikely. The Polymarket market gives Marseille just a 26% chance of victory, reflecting Liverpool's status as favorites despite their draw-heavy Premier League form. Marseille's home advantage and attacking threat suggest they can score, but overcoming a Liverpool side that remains unbeaten in their last 10 matches presents a significant challenge.