Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is sitting on 714,644 Bitcoin worth roughly $49.2 billion -- and approximately $4.5-5 billion in unrealized losses. That is a staggering amount of red ink. And yet the company just bought more Bitcoin. Polymarket traders are pricing in a 98% probability that Strategy will not sell a single satoshi by December 31, 2025. Here is why that near-certainty makes sense.
- Strategy holds 714,644 BTC at an average cost of $76,056, with billions in unrealized losses, yet continues buying aggressively
- Michael Saylor has explicitly stated on CNBC: "We are not going to be selling" -- and the company's buying pattern confirms it
- The Polymarket contract shows 98% "No sell" probability with $3 million in volume, reflecting broad consensus that selling would destroy Strategy's entire business model
Strategy (MSTR) Bitcoin Holdings: Current Position
Company filings show Strategy acquired its 714,644 BTC stash at an average of $76,056 per coin, totaling $54.3 billion in investment cost. With Bitcoin trading below that average, the company is staring at roughly $4.5-5 billion in paper losses. For most companies, that would trigger a boardroom panic.
Strategy is not most companies. Instead of selling, they have been doubling down -- purchasing 1,142 BTC for $90 million and a larger 10,645 BTC block for $980.3 million in December 2025 alone. The company raised $25.3 billion in 2025 specifically to keep buying, funded through stock sales rather than Bitcoin liquidation. That is like a poker player losing on a hand and immediately pushing more chips to the center of the table.
Michael Saylor's Public Statements on Bitcoin Selling
There is no ambiguity here. In a direct CNBC interview, Saylor shut down selling rumors with one sentence: "We are not going to be selling. We are buying, we'll report our next buys on Monday morning." The company has publicly committed to buying Bitcoin "forever" regardless of short-term price action.
If you are wondering whether this is just talk, look at the receipts. Every single quarter of 2025 shows net purchases. Zero sales. The words and the actions match.
Polymarket Prediction Market Analysis
The Polymarket contract for "Strategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2025" tells a revealing story about how confidence decays over longer timeframes:
| Deadline | Probability of Selling | Probability of Holding |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | 2% | 98% |
| March 31, 2026 | 9% | 91% |
| June 30, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| December 31, 2026 | 30% | 70% |
Notice how the "will sell" probability creeps up from 2% to 30% as the timeline extends. Traders are near-certain about the next few months but progressively less sure about 2026. That gradient reflects a rational assessment: the longer the timeline, the more room for Bitcoin to crash further or for Strategy's financing model to hit a wall.
The December 2025 contract alone has $2.84 million in volume, with "No" shares trading at 98.3c.
Fact-Check: Recent Selling Rumors
Claims that Strategy sold $1 billion in Bitcoin have been investigated and debunked. On-chain analysis and corporate filings both confirm zero sales in 2025 -- only accumulation. The rumor mill grinds, but the blockchain does not lie.
Key Factors Supporting the Hold Position
Why is the market so confident? Five reinforcing reasons:
1. Identity, Not Just Strategy: Bitcoin is not a side bet for Strategy. It is the entire corporate identity. Selling would be the equivalent of Coca-Cola announcing it is getting out of the beverage business. The stock trades at a premium because of its Bitcoin exposure. Liquidating the asset would crater the very thing that makes MSTR shares worth buying.
2. Multi-Decade Horizon: Saylor frames Bitcoin in 10-20 year terms. Daily or even yearly price swings are noise in that framework. You do not sell your house because property values dipped this quarter.
3. Capital Without Selling: The company raised $25.3 billion in 2025 through stock offerings and preferred stock. As long as equity markets remain accessible, Strategy can fund operations and even buy more Bitcoin without touching its treasury.
4. Reflexive Stock Premium: MSTR trades above its net asset value precisely because investors view it as a leveraged Bitcoin play. The moment the company sells BTC, that premium evaporates -- and with it, the ability to raise capital cheaply.
5. Broad Market Consensus: A 98% "No" price with $3 million in volume is not a handful of retail traders guessing. It reflects deep, informed conviction across the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Strategy sell Bitcoin in 2025?
Based on Saylor's explicit on-record statements, the company's continued buying pattern through December 2025, and the 98% Polymarket probability, the answer is almost certainly no.
How much Bitcoin does Strategy own?
Strategy holds 714,644 BTC valued at approximately $49.2 billion, making it the largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin by a wide margin.
Is Strategy profitable on their Bitcoin investment?
Not currently. With an average purchase price of $76,056 and Bitcoin trading below that level, the company has roughly $4.5-5 billion in unrealized losses. But "unrealized" is the operative word -- they have not crystallized any loss through selling.
Why doesn't Strategy sell Bitcoin to lock in profits or cut losses?
Because selling would dismantle the company's core value proposition. MSTR's stock premium, its capital-raising ability, and its market identity all depend on being the Bitcoin company. Selling even a portion would signal a fundamental change in strategy that investors would punish severely.
Strategy (MSTR) Bitcoin Sale Prediction: 2025 Forecast
Direction: No (Strategy will not sell) | Probability: 98% | Horizon: By December 31, 2025 Answer: No
Everything points the same way. Saylor's public commitments, the company's unbroken buying streak, $25.3 billion raised through equity (not BTC sales), and $3 million in prediction market volume all converge on the same conclusion. Strategy is not selling its Bitcoin in 2025. The 2% residual probability accounts for black-swan scenarios -- a regulatory order, a bankruptcy-forcing liquidity crisis, or something equally unlikely. Barring those extremes, the Bitcoin stays.
How to Trade This Prediction
This Strategy Bitcoin selling prediction is actively traded on Polymarket, where you can put your conviction to work.
Current Market Prices:
| Outcome | Share Price | Implied Probability | Potential Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| No (will not sell) | 98.3c | 98% | +1.7% |
| Yes (will sell) | 2.2c | 2% | +4,445% |
Trading Options:
- If you agree Strategy will NOT sell Bitcoin: Buy "No" shares at 98.3c (low risk, +1.7% if correct)
- If you believe Strategy WILL sell Bitcoin: Buy "Yes" shares at 2.2c (high risk, +4,445% if correct)
How It Works:
- Each "No" share pays $1 if Strategy doesn't sell Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, $0 if they do
- Each "Yes" share pays $1 if Strategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, $0 if they don't
- Buy shares below $1 to profit from correct predictions
- Sell anytime before resolution to lock in gains or cut losses
Risk Warning: Prediction markets involve financial risk. Only trade what you can afford to lose. Past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.
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