The Indiana Pacers (10-34) travel to TD Garden to face the Boston Celtics (26-16) on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. Despite their significant struggles this season, the Pacers upset Boston 98-96 in their most recent meeting at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with Pascal Siakam hitting the game-winner in a play that later drew controversy when the NBA acknowledged an illegal screen was missed.
Current Situation
The Celtics enter as 10.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 226.5 points. Boston leads the Atlantic Division with a 26-16 record and has been dominant at home against Indiana, going 14-2 in their last 16 home matchups. However, Boston is coming off a narrow 104-103 loss to Detroit on Monday, where Jaylen Brown missed a late shot.
| Team | Record | Division | Road/Home | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 10-34 | 5th Central | 2-18 Road | L (104-113 vs PHI) |
| Boston Celtics | 26-16 | 1st Atlantic | 12-7 Home | L (103-104 vs DET) |
Injury Report
| Player | Team | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bennedict Mathurin | Pacers | Out | Right thumb sprain |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | Probable | Left hamstring tightness |
The absence of Mathurin is significant for Indiana's offense, while Brown's probable status gives Boston a major advantage if he plays.
Statistical Comparison
| Category | Pacers | Celtics |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | ~110 | 116.1 |
| Field Goal % | ~44% | 46.7% |
| Free Throw % | ~78% | 82.8% |
| Rebounds | ~42 | 48.2 |
| Assists | ~25 | 22.7 |
Key Players
Boston Celtics:
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | 29.8 | 6.6 | 4.7 |
| Derrick White | 17.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 |
| Payton Pritchard | 16.6 | 4.4 | 5.3 |
Indiana Pacers:
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 21.8 | 7.1 | - |
| Andrew Nembhard | - | - | 6.7 |
Head-to-Head History
The Celtics lead the all-time series 112-88 and have won two of three meetings this season. However, the Pacers' most recent victory came on a controversial Siakam game-winner where the NBA later acknowledged an illegal screen was set, highlighting the competitive nature of these matchups despite the lopsided records.
Betting Trends
| Trend | Result |
|---|---|
| Pacers UNDER in last 8 games | 7-1 |
| Pacers ATS vs Boston (last 12) | 9-3 |
| Pacers SU vs Boston (last 11) | 3-8 |
| Celtics SU at home vs Indiana (last 16) | 14-2 |
| Celtics ATS at home (last 5) | 1-4 |
Key Factors
The Pacers face a near-impossible task tonight. Their 2-18 road record is among the worst in the NBA, and Boston's 14-2 record at home against Indiana over their last 16 meetings demonstrates a clear pattern of dominance. While Indiana has covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 games against Boston, covering and winning are different outcomes.
Boston's recent loss to Detroit may provide extra motivation, and with Jaylen Brown (probable) likely to play and Mathurin out for Indiana, the talent gap favors the home team significantly. The Celtics average 116.1 points per game over their last 10 contests compared to Indiana's struggles on the road.
Prediction
Direction: Bearish (on Pacers winning) Probability: 21% Horizon: 1 day (January 22, 2026) Answer: No
The combination of Indiana's dismal 2-18 road record, Boston's 14-2 home record against the Pacers in their last 16 meetings, the absence of Mathurin, and the 10.5-point spread all point decisively toward a Celtics victory. While Siakam's recent heroics against Boston show the Pacers can compete, replicating that on the road against a motivated Celtics team coming off a tough loss is highly unlikely. The market probability of 21% for a Pacers win accurately reflects the challenge Indiana faces tonight.