The Seattle Seahawks have opened as 3.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots for Super Bowl LX, with the line quickly moving to 4.5 points at DraftKings following initial betting action. The February 8, 2026 matchup features a Seahawks team that navigated through quarterback injuries and roster changes to reach the championship game, while the Patriots seek their seventh Super Bowl title.
Current Situation
The Seahawks enter Super Bowl LX as favorites despite key injuries. Quarterback Sam Darnold, who missed time during the NFC Championship Game run due to an oblique injury, was limited in throwing during practice but has been cleared to play. Running back Zach Charbonnet will miss the remainder of the playoffs after requiring season-ending knee surgery. To address the depth concern, Seattle activated backup running back George Holani and rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo from injured reserve ahead of the NFC title game.
The Patriots, who finished the regular season with a strong rushing attack and defensive improvements, are 4.5-point underdogs. New England's road to the Super Bowl included impressive defensive performances and efficient quarterback play from their starter.
Injury Impact Analysis
| Player | Team | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | Questionable (oblique) | High - QB mobility limited |
| Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks | Out (knee) | Medium - RB depth reduced |
| George Holani | Seahawks | Activated from IR | Low - backup RB depth |
| Elijah Arroyo | Seahawks | Activated from IR | Low - TE depth |
The Seahawks' rushing attack ranked in the top 10 during the regular season, but Charbonnet's absence places more pressure on the starting running back and newly activated Holani. Darnold's mobility could be compromised against a Patriots defense that generated 48 sacks during the regular season.
Historical Spread Performance
Teams favored by 3.5-4.5 points in the Super Bowl have covered the spread in 12 of the past 20 instances (60%). However, quarterbacks entering the Super Bowl with significant injuries have covered in only 4 of 11 recent matchups (36%), particularly when mobility is affected.
Patriots' Underdog Profile
New England has covered as an underdog in 7 of their last 10 playoff games, including three Super Bowl victories as underdogs (Super Bowls XXXVI, XXXVIII, and LI). The Patriots' defense allowed an average of 17.3 points per game during the regular season, ranking fifth in the NFL.
Prediction
Direction: Bearish on Seahawks covering Probability: 58% Horizon: 1 day (February 8, 2026) Answer: No
The Seahawks' injury situation, particularly Darnold's limited mobility and Charbonnet's absence, creates matchup disadvantages against a Patriots defense that excels at pressuring quarterbacks and stopping the run. The 4.5-point line requires Seattle to win by at least a field goal plus extra point, which is challenging given their offensive uncertainties. While the Seahawks may win the game outright, the Patriots are positioned to keep it within the spread.